Macro Briefing - Thursday, Dec. 4
US nonfarm private sector payrolls declined 32,000 in November, according to the ADP Employment Report. “While November’s slowdown was broad-based, it was led by a pullback among small businesses,” said ADP’s chief economist. Some economists, however, downplayed the report: “It is too loosely correlated with the official data to be troubling,” advised Samuel Tombs, chief US economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. “Our model points to a first estimate of a 75,000 to 100,000 increase in private payrolls in November, which after revisions and benchmarking we think would be consistent with growth of about 25,000.”

US import prices were unchanged in September, according to a delayed report from the Labor Dept. The update also noted that import prices in September rose 0.3% compared to the same month a year ago, marking the first over-the-year increase since March.
Economic activity in the US services sector continued to expand in November, based on the ISM Services Index. The moderate increase marks the 12th consecutive month that the index has been in expansion territory.
US industrial production edged up 0.1% in September, in line with expectations. Industrial production has risen 1.6% year-over-year, building on a 0.9% gain the previous month.
Clean-energy stocks are set to post a strong rebound in 2025, reversing four straight calendar-year losses, notes TMC Research, a unit of The Milwauakee Company, a wealth management firm. A benchmark created by TMC Research that tracks the five biggest alt-energy ETFs is up nearly 37% year to date (through Dec. 2), well ahead of the US stock market overall and a fund that’s a proxy for conventional energy firms.

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