Macro Briefing - Monday, Dec. 8
US consumer spending in real (inflation-adjusted) terms was flat in September, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis data. The unchanged monthly reading marks the weakest month for real consumer spending since in four months. “Many consumers, especially middle- and lower-income households, face widespread affordability issues that force them to be more cautious and value-based shoppers,” said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.
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The US core personal consumption expenditures price index (PCE), which excludes volatile food and energy prices, was lower than expected in September, the Commerce Department said Friday. The report, delayed by the government shutdown, provides support for expecting that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this week at Wednesday’s policy meeting.
US consumers’ mood improved slightly in early December, with worries about inflation easing a bit, but remains gloomy, according to the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index. The index has fallen sharply since January.
New orders for US factory goods increased less than expected in September as manufacturers. Factory orders rose 0.2% after a downwardly revised 1.3% increase in August, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said on Thursday.
China’s exports rose 5.9% from a year earlier in November, nearly triple the 2% increase in imports, lifting the country’s trade surplus to a record $1.08 trillion. “With the renminbi undervalued by 30 percent against the euro, possibly more, it will be exceedingly difficult, if not impossible, to compete against Chinese manufacturers even if Europe does all the right things it needs to do in terms of deregulation, bringing down energy prices and establishing a true unified market,” said Jens Eskelund, the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China.

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