Macro Briefing - Friday, July 11
US initial jobless claims fell for a third straight week, returning to a middling range relative to recent history. The decline in recent weeks suggests that the labor market will remain resilient, providing the Federal Reserve with support for delaying interest-rate cuts.
President Trump said he will raise tariffs on Canada in latest esclation of the trade war. Beginning next month, he wrote that hte US would apply a 35% tariff to all imports from Canada.
Trump’s announcement this week of a 50% tariff on copper raises questions about the supply and price for this key commodity for semiconductors and national security. Although the US has large deposits of the metal, more than 40% percent of the copper used in America is imported and developing new mines will take years, reports The New York Times.
Treasury market’s bond-market volatility gauge fell to a 3-year low. The ICE BofA MOVE Index, a measure of expected fluctuations in yields, closed at its lowest level since early 2022 on Thursday.
The Federal Reserve continues to maintain a moderately tight monetary policy as it awaits additional economic data for assessing the outlook for tariff-related inflation. TMC Research, a unit of The Milwaukee Company, estimates that the current median Fed funds target rate is roughly 70 basis points above the neutral rate.
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