July Markit Services PMI: "Softest Rise In Business Activity Since February"

The July US Services Purchasing Managers' Index conducted by Markit came in at 59.9 percent, down 4.7 from the final June estimate of 64.6.

Here is the opening from the latest press release:

Commenting on the latest survey results, Chris Williamson, Chief Business Economist at IHS Markit, said:

“The pace of US economic growth cooled in July, according to the final PMI data, but remained impressively strong to suggest that GDP will rise robustly again in the third quarter. Stimulus measures combined with the vaccine roll out and reopening of the economy continued to boost demand for goods and services, most notably among households and especially in consumer-facing services such as travel and hospitality.

“Some further easing in the rate of expansion is likely in coming months, however, as future growth expectations mellowed considerably during the month. This waning of optimism in part reflected the likely peaking of demand in the second quarter as the economy opened up, but also reflected a rising concern over the potential for the Delta variant to disrupt the economy again.

“With the survey once again bringing signs that capacity is being constrained by a lack of raw materials and labour, inflationary pressures look set to persist in the coming months, though it is encouraging to note that the overall rate of increase of selling prices for goods and services continued to moderate from May’s recent peak.” [Press Release]

Here is a snapshot of the series since mid-2012.

Here is an overlay with the equivalent PMI survey conducted by the Institute for Supply Management, which they refer to as "Non-Manufacturing" (see our full article on this series here). Over its history, the ISM metric has been significantly the more volatile of the two.

Markit and ISM Services PMI

The next chart uses a three-month moving average of the two rather volatile series to facilitate our understanding of the current trend. Since early in 2016, the ISM metric has shown stronger growth than the Markit counterpart.

Markit Services PMI

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