I’m still on the road, so this will be an abbreviated report.

Initial claims rose 14,000 to 249,000, the highest since last August. The four week moving average rose 2,500 to 238,000, the highest since last September. Continuing claims, with the usual one week lag, rose 33,000 to 1.877 million, the highest since January 2022:

Last August claims also rose sharply from their brief downturn in July, so I continue to suspect there is residual seasonality here.

At the same time, all three metrics are now higher YoY, the one week claims number higher by 3.8%, the four week average by 1.9%, and continuing claims by 5.7%:

This is not recessionary, but it is no longer positive. Jobless claims are now neutral, and if they trend higher for a few more weeks may warrant a yellow caution flag. Which also means that the unemployment rate is likely to rise further in the next few months, if not necessarily tomorrow.

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