232k Americans filed for jobless benefits for the first time last week, very modestly higher than the 230k print the prior week (but below the 235k exp).

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Source: Bloomberg

Continuing claims remain below the 1.8mm Maginot Line (1.795mm). With the farce in MA now over, there are no major outliers in state-level data with North Carolina and Arkansas seeing the biggest drops in claims while Ohio and New York saw the biggest jumps...

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The claims data - post-revisions - remains oddly flat at around 18-month highs, refusing to listen to layoffs data (and slowing wage growth).

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JOLTS (with a lag) showed a drop in layoffs and claims data declined... but real-world data like Challenger Grey's surged again...

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So can we trust any govt-supplied data?

This is not what The Fed wants to see (after 500bps of hikes).

With a six-month lag, are we about to see another rebound higher in claims data?

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