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Just recently, Bitcoin surpassed the $50,000 milestone, marking a significant achievement since 2021. This dashed the optimistic expectations that have been building around the crypto industry. Following a challenging period for the crypto market, investors closely monitored industry developments, anticipating widespread adoption and a subsequent boost in cryptocurrency prices. However, despite the approval of 11 spot Bitcoin ETF applications by the SEC on January 11, the anticipated momentum did not materialize, as previously discussed. Now, with the upcoming April 2024 Halving on the horizon, the market has managed to bounce back. According to data from analytics firm Coinmarketcap, the value of the global cryptocurrency market, including Bitcoin, rose 2.3 percent in 24 hours to more than $1 trillion 850 billion.

But how realistic is the impact of these industry events on prices, which have given the market hope and helped push prices back to favorable levels? As of the morning of February 14th, BTC's price rose to 51,000, but fears that BTC will not be able to hold on to the desired levels are still valid for the market. Especially outside observers have already begun to debate whether this level is a crypto bubble. So what are crypto bubbles? Could we be in one right now?

When the value of digital assets, like cryptocurrencies, experiences a sudden and significant increase fueled by excessive optimism and hype, it is referred to as a crypto bubble. During such occurrences, the market undergoes a bubble phenomenon which, upon its collapse, leads to significant declines in prices and, in severe instances, devastating financial setbacks.

Signs of a Crypto Bubble

• Market Overcrowding
• Rapid Price Increase
• No Real World Value (Application)
• Media Hype
• Excessive Valuation According to Peers

The rise and sustainability of the crypto bubble can be attributed to several crucial factors. First and foremost, the expansion of the crypto bubble is heavily influenced by market speculation. Another commonly observed phenomenon is the fear of missing out (FOMO), which occurs when investors see others making substantial profits from cryptocurrency and feel compelled to enter the market in order to achieve the same results. As demand surges, prices soar, creating the illusion of limitless growth. 

For example, Halving 2024 was widely expected to have a positive impact on the BTC price, with some analysts' outrageous price predictions adding fuel to the fire, so to speak. A similar thing happened with ETFs. While many novice investors were expecting a very serious jump after the positive decision, they were disappointed. It is important to underline the difference between a bubble and inaccurate forecasts. When we look at the long term, the aforementioned events actually have a positive impact on crypto prices. Investments in spot Bitcoin ETFs have continued to rise, helping it gain more than 3.8 percent in the last 24 hours.

So, my interpretation of whether crypto is in a bubble right now is actually this: If you can analyze the market correctly, actually the charts already give you the secrets of how it has the potential to go. The investor who analyzes and interprets the news himself, instead of believing what every analyst says, including myself, will come out unscathed, even if the possibility that we are in a bubble is true. So understanding what factors are behind the price increases and what the financial indicators are signaling to us will also be useful for understanding future movements in the market that are difficult to predict.

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