Did you see me on TV this morning? No? Well, that’s because I got bumped (again) from a morning appearance on one of the major financial networks. The proposed topic was a discussion about ride-sharing stocks and the IPO environment in light of the recent market volatility ahead of Uber’s offering.

What follows are the bullet points that I sent to the network’s producers

• Uber is the culmination of the recent wave of IPO’s that has been generally successful. The one glaring exception, of course, is LYFT. 

• The IPO wave changed an important market dynamic. For several years we have seen a continual shrinkage in the supply of public equity, thanks to buybacks and takeovers. For now, that tide has turned.

• I view the IPO market as a barometer of risk tolerance. When the market is in “risk-on” mode, IPOs are well-received. It will be interesting to see how much that risk-on mentality has changed this week

• One can also view the IPO market as a barometer of greed. Markets always balance fear and greed. The initial ramp in the listing price of LYFT and the beyond-belief post-IPO rise in BYND go beyond risk tolerance and into outright greed.

• The decline in LYFT after reporting better-than-expected numbers reinforces it as a broken IPO. I fear that the only thing keeping it afloat is the hope that it would rally if the UBER offer goes well. 

• UBER has some definite advantages over LYFT. It is the leader in the duopoly, it has ancillary businesses (Uber Eats, etc.), and is developing proprietary technology (autonomous vehicles).   They also have great mindshare. When your company name becomes a verb, that’s a very valuable thing.

• The advantages may be slimmer than they appear though. Autonomous vehicles may be the future, but it is a distant future with plenty of challengers. The market hasn’t rewarded TSLA’s recent comments about an autonomous future. It’s not clear that Waymo plays a meaningful role in GOOG valuation. I would be cautious about ascribing too much value to that endeavor at present.

• Bottom line, UBER loses staggering amounts of money but has built an amazing brand. If you see a way for the company to monetize that brand in a way that makes them profitable in the foreseeable future, give it a look. If that future remains a money burner, be much more cautious.