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Markets are pricing in multiple Fed cuts that Powell never actually promised. When that assumption breaks, everything gets repriced -- tech, housing, leveraged credit, all of it. And it won't be pretty.

Right now, investors are still treating this like a low-inflation, low-volatility world, but I'm seeing late-cycle signals everywhere. The yield curve isn't just inverted -- it's staying inverted longer than most expected. Historically, that screams credit risk building beneath the surface. Oil's creeping higher, credit's tightening, yet people keep buying tech like nothing's changed.

That's a dangerous disconnect, and I think it's about to get expensive. Here’s why…

Here's what everyone's missing: if we get another hot CPI or core PCE reading, all those rate-cut assumptions could vanish overnight. Powell hasn't confirmed anything, but markets keep acting like cuts are guaranteed. That's setting up a repricing event that could cascade through every leveraged position in the system.

From a positioning standpoint, I've been cautious. This isn't a time for broad-market beta -- it's a time for tactical exposure with real conviction behind it. We've rotated into more defensive areas, and I'm paying close attention to relative strength. Not just what's going up, but what's going up for a reason.

Gold, for example, has reasserted itself as a viable hedge. We're seeing smart money flow into miners like Newmont. The company has cleaned up its balance sheet, written off bad assets, and kept all-in sustaining costs low, even while gold trades above $2,300. That gives it room to breathe -- and room to run -- if inflation persists or geopolitical risks escalate. When fundamentals align with macro positioning like that, you pay attention.

But here's what really has my attention: the growing complacency in the options market. The VIX is low, but that's not because risk is gone. It's because investors are selling premium just to generate income. That works... until it doesn't. We saw this movie in 2018 and again in 2020. When realized volatility snaps back, it's usually violent.

I'm watching skew, term structure, and gamma positioning very closely. One wrong headline about sticky inflation or credit stress could trigger a cascade. The market's walking a tightrope, and few seem to realize how thin that rope actually is.

Bottom line: this is a market driven by liquidity expectations, not fundamentals. Earnings are slowing. Margins are compressing. The consumer is stretched. Meanwhile, investors keep buying dips like it's 2021.

This environment demands discipline, selectivity, and a strong respect for risk. There are still opportunities out there -- especially in hard assets and high-quality value names -- but you have to look past the noise and focus on what actually matters.

This isn't a time to be a hero. It's a time to protect capital, stay nimble, and focus on setups that offer asymmetry. If you do that, you'll be in a position of strength when the market finally wakes up.

And it will wake up.

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