Pat Higgins at the Atlanta Fed has posted his initial forecast for fourth-quarter GDP.

GDPNow Initial Forecast

Latest estimate: 2.3 percent — October 27, 2023

The initial GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the fourth quarter of 2023 is 2.3 percent on October 27. The initial estimate of third-quarter real GDP growth released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis on October 26 was 4.9 percent, 0.5 percentage points below the final GDPNow model nowcast released on October 25.

The Atlanta Fed has had a hot hand in forecasting beating the Blue Chip forecast and the Econoday consensus. The latter was 4.2 percent, 0.7 percentage points under the mark.

Blowout 4.9 Percent Increase in GDP But Real Disposable Income Declines 1.0 Percent

For discussion of third-quarter GDP, please see Blowout 4.9 Percent Increase in GDP But Real Disposable Income Declines 1.0 Percent

And for more on disposable income, please see Real Disposable Personal Income Drops for the Third Month But Spending Jumps

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