The total through October is about $88 billion and rising. What are the odds?
 

Quartz discusses Potential Tariff Refunds.

The Supreme Court is deciding the fate of President Donald Trump’s global tariffs — and major companies like Costco are getting in line for a possible refund. About $88 billion worth of import taxes collected through the end of October are at stake, per Customs and Border Protection data.

What happens next is still up in the air. The U.S. government, though, has been obligated to pay back private firms before.

One specific example from the late 1990s has caught the attention of trade analysts and major law firms as a blueprint for how a refund process could be structured.

“There’s precedent for it and the data, the systems are in place for it to actually happen pretty smoothly if it was an administration that wanted to do so,” Jacob Jensen, a trade policy analyst at the right-leaning American Action Forum, told Quartz Washington.

Trade experts say that companies subject to Trump’s tariffs are nearing a critical window known as “liquidation,” the 10-month threshold when CBP’s assessment of rates and duty amounts paid becomes final. The first of the tariff barrage hit China in early February, a precursor to April’s more sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs.

Once the liquidation period is up, businesses have six months to challenge the CBP’s calculation if they disagree. At that point, they have to jump through more bureaucratic hoops to get their money back.

For a well-known warehouse club giant like Costco, it appears the risk of staying on the sidelines was too high. And more firms may follow its lead to preserve a legal right to a refund in the coming weeks. Already, Revlon, EssilorLuxottica — maker of the Ray-Ban sunglasses — Kawasaki Motors and BumbleBee Foods are among the companies challenging the administration in court.

The tariff case has lingered in Trump’s mind. On Monday morning, he blasted out a social media post praising tariffs as his favorite tool to level the playing field of global commerce.

“We have a big decision,” Trump said at a White House event later that afternoon. “Hopefully we’re going to get the right decision.” He ended the day by threatening a 5% tariff on Mexico and claimed they were violating a water treaty.

Trump on Truth Social

While the United States has other methods of charging TARIFFS against foreign countries, many of whom have, for YEARS, TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF OUR NATION, the current method of Tariffing before the United States Supreme Court is far more DIRECT, LESS CUMBERSOME, and MUCH FASTER, all ingredients necessary for A STRONG AND DECISIVE NATIONAL SECURITY RESULT. SPEED, POWER, AND CERTAINTY ARE, AT ALL TIMES, IMPORTANT FACTORS IN GETTING THE JOB DONE IN A LASTING AND VICTORIOUS MANNER. I have settled 8 Wars in 10 months because of the rights clearly given to the President of the United States. If countries didn’t think these rights existed, they would have said so, LOUD AND CLEAR! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President DONALD J. TRUMP

Can anyone name the 8 wars that Trump settled in 10 months?

CATO on Refunds

The CATO Institute comments On “Emergency” Tariff Refunds: There’s an Easy Way and a (Very) Hard Way

The easy way is to simply refund the tariffs collected.

But the hard way is to make every company do it package-by-package. Of course, the hard way would burden the entire trade staff with nonsensical work, so it will be interesting to see what Trump does.

It’s possible Trump loses the case but the Supreme Court lets the Administration keep what’s been collected, but I lean towards refunds due to the Costco lawsuit.

Trump’s Statements on Truth Social

• Financial Disaster: Trump has claimed that an adverse decision could lead to a $3 trillion “unwind” including investments and required return of funds, a number which various sources indicate is far higher than the actual collected tariff revenue of around $89 billion to over $100 billion under the specific authority in question.
• National Security Threat: He described a negative ruling as “the biggest threat in history to United States National Security,” arguing that tariffs have enhanced national security and that ending them would make the U.S. “financially defenseless”.
• Court Under Pressure: Observers note that his posts appear to be an attempt to pressure the Supreme Court to preserve his signature economic policy, particularly after Justices seemed skeptical during oral arguments about his authority to impose sweeping tariffs without explicit congressional approval under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
• “Life or Death” Case: Trump has called the case “one of the most important and consequential decisions ever made by the United States Supreme Court,” stating that if the U.S. wins, it will be the “richest, most secure country” but if it loses, it could be reduced to “almost third world status”. 

Does anyone really believe this obvious bullsheet does Trump any good?

Bessent Says Adverse Ruling Has No Impact

On December 5, Fortune reported Treasury Secretary Bessent insists Trump’s tariff agenda is ‘permanent,’ saying the White House can re-create it even with a Supreme Court loss

“We can re-create the exact tariff structure with 301s, with 232s, with the, I think they’re called, 122s,” he said, referring to several sections of various trade acts that could serve as alternatives to the administration’s current justification for its tariffs.

When interviewer and DealBook editor Andrew Ross Sorkin questioned whether these measures could exist permanently, Bessent replied, “Permanently.” He later clarified that tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 would not be permanent.

Tariff Synopsis

A court ruling against tariffs would leave the US “financially defenseless”, reducing the US to “almost third world status”, and have no impact whatsoever.

Obviously, this makes perfect sense in Trumperland where contradictions are preposterous, yet believable.

Costco Sues Trump Administration for Full Refund of Reciprocal Tariffs

On December 3, 2025, I commented Costco Sues Trump Administration for Full Refund of Reciprocal Tariffs

I commend Costco for standing up to Trump’s unconstitutional order.

I expect a 6-3 ruling against Trump that in practice ought to be unanimous.

For discussion, please see What Are the Odds the Supreme Court Rules Against Trump on Tariffs?

I think there is a roughly 75 percent chance Trump loses. See above link for detailed analysis by judge.

As for refunds, assuming Trump loses, that’s a closer call. Say 50-60%.

Meanwhile, please note Trump Doubles Down on Idiotic Idea of Using Tariffs to Replace Income Tax

Once again, Trump says tariffs can replace the income tax.

To replace income tax with tariffs, Trump would have to charge (and collect) $2.4 trillion in tariffs on $3.27 on imports.

That implies a tariff rate of 73.4 percent on all imports, without a decline in imports.

No one in their right mind believes these idiotic theories.

More By This Author: