Image Source: Pixabay
 

Here’s some interesting health care math on Obamacare in Florida.
 

Florida has over ~4.7 million residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 97% of whom are currently subsidized.

For discussion, please consider 2026 Obamacare Costs for Florida.

• A single 50-yr old earning $40,000/yr would see his premiums jump from $154/month to $298/month…nearly DOUBLE.
• A single parent earning $50,000/year would go from paying $146/month to $344/month…2.3x AS MUCH.
• A family of four earning $70,000/year would see their premiums jump from $152/month to $436/month…2.8x as much.
• A 64-yr old couple earning $90,000/yr would go from paying $637/mo to a jaw-dropping $3,176/mo…or FIVE TIMES AS MUCH FOR THE SAME POLICY. That’d be $38,000/YR IN PREMIUMS ALONE, or 42% OF THEIR GROSS INCOME.

I am not happy with the reporting style or rampant bolding of the article. And I suspect those brackets are hand-picked to make an example.

But the KFF foundation estimates an average 114 percent increase, so I don’t doubt the numbers presented, or the rationale that Florida will be worse than average.

Those hurt the most are moderate-income self-employed workers who do not have corporate health care benefits.

The final example above is a couple earning $90,000 in combined income whose premiums will rise to $38,112 per year, up from $7,644.

Senators Bill Cassidy of Louisiana and Mike Crapo of Idaho have announce a plan to give those making up to 700 percent of the poverty level $1,500 annually for health care.

I will discuss that plan in detail tomorrow. Meanwhile, here’s some math.

How a Florida Couple Making $90,000 in Combined Income Fares

• 2025: $7,644
• 2026 as Exists Now (with expired subsidies): $38,112
• New Affordable Program: $38,112 – $1,500 = $36,612

You have to admit this affordability idea is nothing short of brilliant (assuming you are wearing a TWS or MAGA hat, and are not on Obamacare).

Mapping the Uneven Burden of Rising ACA Marketplace Premium Payments

Please consider Mapping the Uneven Burden of Rising ACA Marketplace Premium Payments due to Enhanced Tax Credit Expiration by KFF.

Enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of this year. Enrollees currently receiving premium tax credits at any level of income will see their federal assistance decrease or disappear if enhanced premium tax credits expire, with an average increase of 114% to what enrollees pay in premiums net of tax credits. Since premium payments are capped based on income and family size, there is little geographic variation in the resulting increases in premium payments for enrollees with incomes below 400% of poverty. Out-of-pocket premiums for people with incomes below 400% of poverty will increase by hundreds of dollars to over $1,500 per person on average.

Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible

Yesterday, I commented Health Care Inflation Bomb Makes the Fed’s 2 Percent Target Almost Impossible

Let’s discuss 2026 health care premiums and what they mean to the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

I expect a rise in the Health Care weight in the PCE. I also expect a net 1.5 percentage point increase in PCE inflation in 2026 due to health care.

These estimates stem from health care price hikes across the board (Medicare and corporate plans), not counting the huge ACA impacts.

The Fed’s PCE inflation target is 2.0 percent. If I am in the ballpark, health care alone rates to take up 1.5 percentage points of that target, again, not counting Obamacare!

Click above link for details and the math.

Reader Comments Addendum

Reader Karl: The numbers cited in the article are not cherrypicked. My son with a BS in Business earns $18.50 an hour because he can’t find an entry level job that pays any more than that. His Obamacare monthly premium jumped from $79 a month in 2025 to $189 a month for 2026.

I think the time has come for a full-blown rethink of health care in this country. Any system that is built around third party payments is doomed to failure because there will never be any meaningful cost controls in that type of system. 

Reader Dan W: It is clearly obvious that healthcare in America at current prices is unaffordable. Subsidies only hide the unaffordability.

Alas, the Republicans don’t have a solution and neither do Democrats. Why? Because there is no healthcare solution that sustains the current level of spending, and industry refuses any plan that cuts spending.

More By This Author: