Think carefully.
 

Consider this report: Native-Born Workers Rise By 2 Million Under Trump To A New Record High, As Foreign-Born Plunge By 1.6 Million

Now since the month-to-month changes are largely driven by seasonal factors, they don’t convey the full picture. What does, is a longer-term study such as the one below, which shows that since Trump entered the White House and his policies started impacting the economy, the number of foreign born workers has slumped from a record 33.7 million in March 2025 to 32.1 million, a drop of $1.6 million. This has been offset by a slow but consistent increase in native-born workers which had been unchanged for six years since 2019 until the start of 2025, at which point it started to rise again, and has increased from 131.2 million in March 2025 to a new record high of 133.2 million in September.

I Respectfully Disagree

The BLS foreign-born worker total is not seasonally adjusted. Thus, it is invalid to compare March of 2025 to now.

The only valid comparison one can make now with unadjusted BLS numbers is September of 2025 to September of 2024. That’s a decline of 670,000.

But wait. Foreign-born includes US citizens. The BLS makes no effort to distinguish between foreign and foreign-born.

There is one more big issue. Since there is widespread disbelief in BLS numbers, why are we supposed to believe this set of BLS numbers?

Are Illegal immigrants suddenly responding to BLS household surveys?

Reality Check

Please consider the Peterson Institute for International Economic report Seeing economic data through the fog of immigration estimates on September 4, 2005, by Jed Kolko.

The recent Current Population Survey (CPS) data showing that there were 2.2 million fewer immigrants in the US in July 2025 than in January are implausibly large and uncorroborated, and imply absurd gyrations in the labor market.

The CPS—or the “household survey,” conducted monthly by the Census Bureau—has seen its response rates decline for years, from 90.3 percent in January 2013 to 67.1 percent in July 2025. The decline has been fairly steady, aside from a huge temporary drop during the pandemic.

It is plausible that response rates have fallen more among immigrants than for the native-born in 2025. Immigrants might be increasingly wary of responding to government surveys as the Trump administration is trying to use IRS taxpayer data and insurance claim data for immigration enforcement.

... The 2025 decline in CPS response rates, combined with reasonable assumptions about the relative decline in response rates for the foreign-born, could therefore explain the entire reported decline in the foreign-born population.

Kolko goes through the math showing it’s even worse than the last paragraph above implies.

Immigration Still Powers US Job Growth

Next, please consider this alternate view from Revelio labs: Immigration Still Powers US Job Growth

The Current Population Survey (CPS) reports 2.2 million fewer immigrants in 2025—a hard-to-believe decline. The growing politicization of immigration, from ICE raids to rhetoric that stigmatizes immigrant communities, has contributed to a sharp drop in survey participation among immigrants, amid recently falling response rates. Many immigrants no longer feel safe sharing information with the government, leaving official data volatile and highly misleading.

This is where alternative data for the labor market can add real value. Revelio Public Labor Statistics (RPLS) is based on information from online professional profiles far less vulnerable to survey bias.

As data on immigration through government surveys are becoming less reliable, alternative data prove their usefulness. Revelio Labs’ granular job history and education history data allow us to address this. While we do not directly observe people’s place of birth in online professional profiles to be able to identify “foreign-born” workers, the level of granularity in the data allows us to predict whether a worker is foreign or not. 

To predict whether a worker is foreign or domestic, we use information on the location of their first education entry, the languages listed on their profiles, and the location of their first job. We start with education information: Workers whose profiles include data on their high school education or undergraduate degree outside the US are considered foreign. For workers without education information, we check information about their language proficiency. If they mention languages other than English where their proficiency is native or bilingual, we consider them foreign workers. For the remaining workers, we check the location of their first job and identify them as foreign if their first job is outside the US. By classifying workers into foreign and domestic based on signals from their professional profiles, we construct a stable picture of employment and show how the immigrant workforce is evolving. It is important to note that we are not measuring employment by “foreign-born” and “US-born” workers. Rather, we are measuring employment of foreign workers who moved to the US as adults to pursue higher education or career opportunities.

As of September 2025, the foreign workforce in the US was 10 million workers, accounting for about 6.3% of the total US workforce after a steady increase from 5.6% in January 2021. This increase reflects a strong participation from immigrants not just during the great resignation, but also in the highly competitive market that followed.

Does anyone disagree with what Revelio said about the BLS?

Revelio also handles an issue the BLS does not even try. And that is to separate genuine foreign workers from foreign-born workers who are now US citizens.

Revelio continues

While recent releases of the CPS indicate a sharp drop in immigration in 2025, employment data tells a different story. The number of foreign workers has continued to grow since 2021, with an average y-o-y growth rate of 4%, outpacing the average y-o-y growth of 1.2% among US workers.

However, the y-o-y growth rate of the foreign workforce has slowed notably since the beginning of 2025 alongside changes in immigration policy since the Trump administration took office.

Revelio Data
 

Those are seasonally adjusted numbers. With adjusted numbers, we can make valid month-over-month comparisons.

Since the start of 2025, foreign workers increased by 192,000. Meanwhile, US employment fell by 73,000.

I find many reasons to be skeptical of the above chart. But that is no reason so start believing illegal immigrants are suddenly answering BLS phone calls.

The idea that foreign-born workers dropped by 1.6 million while US workers rose by 2 million is mathematically and intellectually silly.

Besides, careful application of the BLS unadjusted data is -670,000 not -1.6 million even if you are a sudden admirer of BLS data.

Related Posts

December 4, 2025: Challenger Reports Employers Announced 71,321 Job Cuts in November

Announcements imply future, not immediate, layoffs and unemployment claims.

No Surprise

None of this is a surprise. I have been discussing, and predicting this all year.

The tariff impact on small businesses is starting to take a big toll on small businesses.

Unlike large employers, small businesses have fewer means of tariff avoidance and less ability to hold inventory or eat the tariffs.

December 5, 2025: Welcome to Tariff Complexity Hell, No One Knows What Trump Will Do

Tariffs are a tax, and complexity adds to that tax.

December 3, 2025 : Small Businesses Drop 120,000 Jobs in November, ADP Total Down 32,000

It’s another grim month according to ADP.

Change in Small, Medium, Large Employment Details

• Small: -197,000
• Medium: +275,000
• Large: +1,012,000

Not a bit of this is a surprise to any thinking person. And Trump owns all of it for overpromising and underdelivering.

December 5, 2025: Revelio Says Payrolls Decline by 9,000 the 5th Drop in 7 Months

We don’t have BLS reports but we do have ADP and Revelio.

I wonder how many fans Revelio just lost due to this data on foreign employment.

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