With constant fearmongery about Trump's tariffs prompting a panic-flation, it is interesting to note that inflation data has been serially disappointing in recent weeks (printing below expectations)...

Source: Bloomberg

And this morning we get The Fed's (old) favorite inflation indicator (until they changed their minds because it didn't fit the narrative) - Core PCE - print at +2.8% YoY (flat from the prior month).

Source: Bloomberg

Headline PCE rose to +2.6% (as expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

While Cyclical PCE continues to slide, Acyclical inflation (the segment that The Fed can't really 'manage'), pushed higher...

Source: Bloomberg

As the cost of goods keeps rising, so does income and spending (the former +0.4% as expected and the latter +0.7%, more than expected)...

Source: Bloomberg

Remember when the Biden admin scrambled to revise GDP higher and artificially inflated the savings rate to make it possible.  

Well guess what happened after all the data revisions...

Finally, not a pretty picture...

Source: Bloomberg

So will inflation be resurgent due to Trump tariffs... or the lagged impact of the money supply surge of the last 12 months to try and pump Bidenomics?

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