Any day or minute now, the world will see the fourth-ever Bitcoin halving.

“This is an exciting chapter for long-time crypto enthusiasts,” said Humanity Protocol founder Terence Kwok, “as we now have large institutions waiting with us for the next halving.”

Bitcoin has arguably never been so popular – nor its price so high – just before a halving.

Another thing that makes this halving worth watching is that it’s likely to be unpredictable, according to Kwok:

This halving isn’t the same as previous halvings — with institutional wealth flowing in through the ETFs, we can’t use data from previous halving events to hypothesize what could happen in the next few weeks.”

When is the next Bitcoin halving date?

Unofficially, may people seem to believe it will be either April 15^th or April 16^th – but that is definitely not set in stone.   

Officially, there isn’t an actual, prescheduled date for the 2024 Bitcoin halving, and that’s because of how halvings work.

The upcoming Bitcoin halving will take place, not during a specific date or time, but rather at block height 840,000.

A block height is reached by demand for that cryptocurrency reaching that level, and can happen faster when there is a surge in demand, or slower if there is an ebb.

When Bitcoin reaches that block height, no matter the day or hour, that’s when it will automatically halve – and we (the markets) may only know after the fact.

Currently, the Bitcoin block height is at around approximately 838,850 at the time of this article going to press.

This means that less than 1,150 block remain until the halving.

What will happen immediately after the halving?

Oliver Bell, CEO of XCAD Network, things that there might be a sudden and dramatic response to the halving:

The unpredictability of Bitcoin’s halving timing—determined by block discovery rather than a fixed date—can surprise the market. This can cause market volatility… the broader market might react swiftly and sharply, mirroring the excitement that follows unexpected announcements in any dynamic market.”

Bell goes on to say that:

After a Bitcoin halving event, the market’s immediate reaction can vary, reflecting a mix of anticipation and caution. Some participants may adopt a ‘sell the news’ strategy, leading to a potential short-term dip. Conversely, if traders view the scarcity as a signal for future value increase, the immediate effect might lean positively.”

What will happen in the weeks and months post-halving?

According to Bell, it’s all about broader economic context of the markets at large:

 

A strong USD might dampen the typically bullish sentiment associated with reduced Bitcoin supply, much like a saturated entertainment market might affect the reception of new niche offerings. Conversely, if traditional safe havens like gold are performing well, they could either bolster or compete with Bitcoin’s attractiveness post-halving.”

Currently, we are seeing a very strong spot gold price – but also a strong US dollar in the wake of the recent positive jobs data from the United States.

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