Next week the Bank of England meet, and expectations in short-term interest rate markets are that they will hike rates again. However, there is uncertainty about whether that will be a 25 or 50bps rate hike. The current expectation is around a 60/40 split in favor of just a 25 bps hike. So, with inflation set to fall again for data in July, will the GBP see weakness in the BoE decision?
Furthermore, the growing risk for the UK is that stagflation bites the UK economy as higher interest rates eat up disposable income and cramp business investment. So, watch out for potential GBP selling next Thursday at the Bank of England meeting. Also, notice these very weak seasonals! Over the last 15 years, the GBPUSD pair has fallen nearly 75% of the time for an average drop of 2.58%. Will the BoE and, expectations of a less aggressive BoE, send the GBPUSD lower?
Major Trade Risks: The main risk here would from a more hawkish BoE policy and a miss in the US Core PCE print on Friday, which could send the GBPUSD pair higher.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
