Where Will the World’s Next 1,000 Babies Be Born?

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Every four minutes, approximately 1,000 babies are born across the globe. But in which countries are these babies the most statistically likely to come from?

Using data from the CIA World Factbook, this graphic by Pratap Vardhan (Stats of India) paints a picture of the world’s demographics, showing which countries are most likely to welcome the next 1,000 babies based on population and birth rates as of 2022 estimates.

The Next 1,000 Babies, By Country

Considering India has a population of nearly 1.4 billion, it’s fairly unsurprising that it ranks first on the list. Of every 1,000 babies born, the South Asian country accounts for roughly 172 of them.

Place	Region	Births Per 1,000 Global Babies
​ India	Asia	171.62
China	Asia	102.84
Nigeria	Africa	56.50
Pakistan	Asia	47.23
Congo, Democratic Republic of the	Africa	31.90
Indonesia	Asia	31.20
United States	Americas	30.42
Ethiopia	Africa	25.44
Brazil	Americas	22.27
Bangladesh	Asia	21.52
Philippines	Asia	18.75
Egypt	Africa	16.98
Tanzania	Africa	15.61
Uganda	Africa	13.89
Mexico	Americas	12.85
Vietnam	Asia	11.96
Sudan	Africa	11.79
Kenya	Africa	10.82
Angola	Africa	10.68
Afghanistan	Asia	9.98
Russia	Europe	9.85
Iran	Asia	9.73
Mozambique	Africa	8.72
Turkey	Asia	8.71
Niger	Africa	8.46
South Africa	Africa	7.84
Cameroon	Africa	7.65
Iraq	Asia	7.34
Ghana	Africa	6.94
Myanmar	Asia	6.90
Japan	Asia	6.34
Mali	Africa	6.25
Algeria	Africa	6.01
Cote d'Ivoire	Africa	5.97
Madagascar	Africa	5.93
France	Europe	5.85
Germany	Europe	5.62
Yemen	Asia	5.61
Colombia	Americas	5.48
Burkina Faso	Africa	5.41
United Kingdom	Europe	5.37
Chad	Africa	5.34
Argentina	Americas	5.29
Thailand	Asia	5.19
Zambia	Africa	5.03
Morocco	Africa	4.70
Malawi	Africa	4.27
Benin	Africa	4.16
Senegal	Africa	4.15
Peru	Americas	4.08
Nepal	Asia	3.95
Venezuela	Americas	3.78
Saudi Arabia	Asia	3.69
Zimbabwe	Africa	3.67
Malaysia	Asia	3.62
Syria	Asia	3.60
Uzbekistan	Asia	3.55
Guinea	Africa	3.47
Somalia	Africa	3.45
Burundi	Africa	3.28
South Sudan	Africa	3.19
Italy	Europe	3.12
Guatemala	Americas	2.90
Ukraine	Europe	2.88
Canada	Americas	2.85
Korea, North	Asia	2.71
Korea, South	Asia	2.63
Rwanda	Africa	2.56
Spain	Europe	2.47
Poland	Europe	2.38
Cambodia	Asia	2.37
Australia	Oceania	2.36
Sri Lanka	Asia	2.35
Kazakhstan	Asia	2.19
Ecuador	Americas	2.09
Sierra Leone	Africa	2.06
Papua New Guinea	Oceania	2.04
Togo	Africa	1.99
Jordan	Asia	1.82
Haiti	Americas	1.76
Chile	Americas	1.73
Bolivia	Americas	1.65
Liberia	Africa	1.44
Dominican Republic	Americas	1.42
Netherlands	Europe	1.40
Tajikistan	Asia	1.39
Central African Republic	Africa	1.31
Congo, Republic of the	Africa	1.30
Taiwan	Asia	1.28
Tunisia	Africa	1.28
Honduras	Americas	1.24
Eritrea	Africa	1.23
Romania	Europe	1.19
Laos	Asia	1.19
Israel	Asia	1.14
Libya	Africa	1.13
Azerbaijan	Asia	1.03
Belgium	Europe	0.95
Paraguay	Americas	0.88
Kyrgyzstan	Asia	0.87
El Salvador	Americas	0.86
Mauritania	Africa	0.86
Sweden	Europe	0.83
Cuba	Americas	0.82
United Arab Emirates	Asia	0.79
Nicaragua	Americas	0.76
Turkmenistan	Asia	0.72
Czechia	Europe	0.68
Switzerland	Europe	0.65
Belarus	Europe	0.63
Austria	Europe	0.62
Hungary	Europe	0.62
Oman	Asia	0.61
Portugal	Europe	0.60
Greece	Europe	0.59
Panama	Americas	0.57
Costa Rica	Americas	0.55
Guinea-Bissau	Africa	0.54
West Bank	Asia	0.54
Gambia	Africa	0.51
Lebanon	Asia	0.51
Namibia	Africa	0.50
Norway	Europe	0.49
Denmark	Europe	0.49
Ireland	Europe	0.48
New Zealand	Oceania	0.47
Gabon	Africa	0.45
Serbia	Europe	0.44
Hong Kong	Asia	0.43
Finland	Europe	0.43
Bulgaria	Europe	0.41
Gaza Strip	Asia	0.41
Kuwait	Asia	0.40
Georgia	Asia	0.40
Singapore	Asia	0.39
Mongolia	Asia	0.38
Lesotho	Africa	0.37
Equatorial Guinea	Africa	0.37
Slovakia	Europe	0.36
Botswana	Africa	0.36
Jamaica	Americas	0.33
Timor-Leste	Asia	0.33
Uruguay	Americas	0.32
Albania	Europe	0.29
Croatia	Europe	0.27
Moldova	Europe	0.25
Armenia	Asia	0.24
Bosnia and Herzegovina	Europe	0.24
Kosovo	Europe	0.21
Eswatini	Africa	0.19
Lithuania	Europe	0.18
Puerto Rico	Americas	0.18
Qatar	Asia	0.17
North Macedonia	Europe	0.16
Djibouti	Africa	0.16
Comoros	Africa	0.14
Bahrain	Asia	0.14
Slovenia	Europe	0.13
Latvia	Europe	0.12
Solomon Islands	Oceania	0.12
Fiji	Oceania	0.11
Trinidad and Tobago	Americas	0.11
Bhutan	Asia	0.10
Cyprus	Asia	0.10
Guyana	Americas	0.10
Mauritius	Africa	0.09
Cabo Verde	Africa	0.08
Estonia	Europe	0.08
Suriname	Americas	0.07
Belize	Americas	0.06
Brunei	Asia	0.06
Luxembourg	Europe	0.06
Montenegro	Europe	0.05
Vanuatu	Oceania	0.05
Sao Tome and Principe	Africa	0.04
Maldives	Asia	0.04
Macau	Asia	0.04
Bahamas, The	Americas	0.04
Iceland	Europe	0.03
Malta	Europe	0.03
New Caledonia	Oceania	0.03
French Polynesia	Oceania	0.03
Samoa	Oceania	0.03
Barbados	Americas	0.02
Guam	Oceania	0.02
Kiribati	Oceania	0.02
Tonga	Oceania	0.02
Curacao	Americas	0.01
Saint Lucia	Americas	0.01
Micronesia, Federated States of	Oceania	0.01
Marshall Islands	Oceania	0.01
Grenada	Americas	0.01
Antigua and Barbuda	Americas	0.01
Aruba	Americas	0.01
Jersey	Europe	0.01
Saint Vincent and the Grenadines	Americas	0.01
Virgin Islands	Americas	0.01
Seychelles	Africa	0.01
Dominica	Americas	0.01
Isle of Man	Europe	0.01
Bermuda	Americas	0.01
Northern Mariana Islands	Oceania	0.01
Greenland	Americas	0.01
Turks and Caicos Islands	Americas	0.01
Faroe Islands	Europe	0.01
American Samoa	Oceania	0.01
Cayman Islands	Americas	0.01
Saint Kitts and Nevis	Americas	0.00
Guernsey	Europe	0.00
Andorra	Europe	0.00
Sint Maarten	Americas	0.00
Saint Martin	Americas	0.00
British Virgin Islands	Americas	0.00
Gibraltar	Europe	0.00
Liechtenstein	Europe	0.00
San Marino	Europe	0.00
Tuvalu	Oceania	0.00
Palau	Oceania	0.00
Anguilla	Americas	0.00
Monaco	Europe	0.00
Nauru	Oceania	0.00
Wallis and Futuna	Oceania	0.00
Cook Islands	Oceania	0.00
Saint Helena, Ascension, and Tristan da Cunha	Africa	0.00
Saint Barthelemy	Americas	0.00
Montserrat	Americas	0.00
Falkland Islands (Islas Malvinas)	Americas	0.00
Saint Pierre and Miquelon	Americas	0.00

It’s worth noting that, while India ranks number one on the list, the country’s birth rate (which is its total number of births in a year per 1,000 individuals) is actually slightly below the global average, at 16.8 compared to 17.7 respectively.

China, which comes second on the list, is similar to India, with a high population but relatively low birth rate as well. On the other hand, Nigeria, which ranks third on the list, has a birth rate that’s nearly double the global average, at 34.2.

Why is Nigeria’s birth rate so high?

There are various intermingling factors at play, but one key reason is the fact that Nigeria’s economy still is developing, and ranks 131st globally in terms of GDP per capita. Further, access to education for women is still not as widespread as it could be, and research shows that this is strongly correlated with higher birth rates.

The World’s Population Growth Rate is Declining

While there are hundreds of thousands of babies born around the world each day, it’s worth mentioning that the world’s overall population growth rate has actually been declining since the 1960s.

This is happening for a number of reasons, including:

• Increased wealth around the world, which research has correlated with fewer births
• Various government policies discouraging large families
• The global shift from rural to urban living

By 2100, global population growth is expected to drop to 0.1%, which means we’ll essentially reach net-zero population growth.

This would increase our global median age even further, which poses a number of economic risks if countries don’t properly prepare for this demographic shift.

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