Visualized: GDP Growth Projections For Key Economies (2024-2025)
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GDP Growth Projections for 2024-2025
In this graphic, we summarize the latest GDP growth projections from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which are as of July 2024.
Advanced Economies: GDP Growth Highlights
The numbers and projections featured in this graphic are also listed in the tables below, starting with advanced economies.
| Country | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. | +2.5% | +2.6% | +1.9% |
| Germany | -0.2% | +0.2% | +1.3% |
| France | +1.1% | +0.9% | +1.3% |
| Italy | +0.9% | +0.7% | +0.9% |
| Spain | +2.5% | +2.4% | +2.1% |
| Japan | +1.9% | +0.7% | +1.0% |
| UK | +0.1% | +0.7% | +1.5% |
| Canada | +1.2% | +1.3% | +2.4% |
The U.S. has been one of the strongest advanced economies since the COVID-19 pandemic, though the IMF believes growth will taper off in 2025. This will be due to slower job growth and tighter fiscal policy (less government spending and/or higher taxes).
In Europe, the IMF believes GDP growth will bottom out in 2024, and pick up in 2025. Germany in particular has struggled due to weakness in the manufacturing sector.
Emerging and Developing Economies
Next are the figures for growing markets like China or India:
| Country | 2023 | 2024F | 2025F |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | +5.2% | +5.0% | +4.5% |
| < /> India | +8.2% | +7.0% | +6.5% |
| Russia | +3.6% | +3.2% | +1.5% |
| < /> Brazil | +2.9% | +2.1% | +2.4% |
| Mexico | +3.2% | +2.2% | +1.6% |
| Saudi Arabia | -0.8% | +1.7% | +4.7% |
| Nigeria | +2.9% | +3.1% | +3.0% |
| South Africa | +0.7% | +0.9% | +1.2% |
For India, expected GDP growth in 2024 has been revised upwards to 7.0%, reflecting rising prospects for domestic consumption.
Turning to China, GDP growth is projected to slow to 4.5% in 2025, and to 3.3% by 2029. This is a significant change from the growth rates seen in the 2010s, which hovered between 6% to 10%.
A major reason for China’s slowing growth is its aging population, which will leave the country with fewer workers and more retirees. It’s worth noting that China is not the only country facing this problem—birth rates have been falling around the world.
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