Early Friday morning the BoJ meet and speculation is rising on whether they will start to signal the end of negative interest rates. A weak yen is creating problems for the domestic markets and raising interest rates would be a quick way to strengthen the Yen. So, what would happen to the USDJPY if the BoJ surprised markets with a hike? The reaction would most likely be a continued move lower in US yields, and a sharp drop in the USDJPY as interest rate differentials narrowed between the Fed and the BoJ.
The BoJ has not hiked interest rates very many times in the last 50 years, but when they have the seasonality shows a bias for USD falls.
The average fall has been -0.26% in the USD in the 4 days following the BoJ’s hike. So, keeping in mind that any hike on Friday would be a bug surprise, the reaction should be more marked and USDJPY selling more pronounced.
Major Trade Risks: The major trade risks here would be if the BoJ signals the continuation of its ultra-loose monetary policy.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
