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• USD/CAD finds support as the US Dollar strengthens on renewed optimism over US-China trade progress.
• US labor market data hit its lowest level since September 2024, pointing to weakening job demand amid growing economic uncertainty.
• The Canadian Dollar stays subdued as markets assess the impact of a narrow Liberal minority government victory.

USD/CAD is holding gains for a second consecutive session, trading near 1.3840 during Wednesday’s Asian session. The pair remains supported as the US Dollar (USD) benefits from renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade developments. Market focus now shifts to the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for March and Canada’s GDP data for February, both due later in the day.

Contributing to the upbeat sentiment, US President Donald Trump expressed a willingness to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, while China announced exemptions for certain US imports from its 125% tariff list. These developments have sparked hopes that the prolonged trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies may be nearing resolution.

Meanwhile, US labor data on Tuesday suggested some weakness, with the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) showing a decline to 7.19 million in March, down from a revised 7.48 million in February and below the market expectation of 7.5 million. This marks the lowest level since September 2024, signaling cooling labor demand amid rising economic uncertainty.

The Canadian Dollar (CAD) remains under pressure as investors digest the implications of a narrow Liberal minority victory. Prime Minister Mark Carney will now need to seek coalition support to govern, potentially leading to targeted fiscal spending commitments.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) decision to keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 2.75%—citing sticky core inflation and the dual risk of a US-led recession or economic stagnation if tariffs are lifted—has dampened expectations for any imminent rate cuts.

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