UK Inflation Back at Target

The British Pound is rising today on the back of the latest set of UK inflation figures released this morning. The data delivered by the ONS showed that headline annualized CPI fell to 2% last month, down from 2.3% prior, finally back at the BOE’s target. Similarly, core CPI was seen falling again to 3.5% from 3.9% prior. Both results were in line with forecasts and should be firmly encouraging for the BOE as it meets tomorrow for its June rate-setting meeting. The uptick in GBP in response to the data likely reflects a better growth outlook amidst cooling inflation.

BOE Rates Guidance

Despite inflation falling back to target, the BOE isn't expected to cut rates when it meets tomorrow. Given the upcoming UK general election on July 4th, traders are instead expecting the bank to cut rates in August. However, tomorrow will be an important day for GBP and UK assets with traders looking for a clear signal from the BOE that an Agust cut is on the table, as well as guidance on how it plans to adjust rates over the remainder of the year, given the drop in inflation. If the BOE is seen clearly signposting an August cut, this should drive some GBP weakness near-term, particularly with the Fed expected to remain on hold until at least September.

Technical Views

GBPUSD

The latest test of the 1.2832 level has seen the market pulling back once again.  This is a key pivot point for the pair and a main objective for bulls. While price holds above the 1.2612 level, focus remains on further upside and an eventual break above the 1.2832 level. Below 1.2612, 1.2437 is the key support to note. 

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