BOE in Focus

The FTSE is trading a little higher today ahead of the BOE meeting. Price action has been muted this week as traders wait to hear the latest outlook and assessment from Bailey and co. Yesterday, UK inflation was seen falling back to the BOE’s 2% target for the first time in three years, down from the 11.1% highs recorded in 2022. On the back of the data traders will now be keen to see whether the BOE strikes a more dovish tone. No policy change is expected this month, ahead of the UK general election in July, so all focus will be on the voting split and forward guidance.

Guidance & Voting Key

The market is now widely expecting the BOE to begin easing in August and will be looking for a clear signal today. If seen, this should help drive FTSE higher near-term, weighing on GBP. Along with the guidance given, traders will be scrutinising the voting split. If we see any policymakers showing support for a cut this month, this will be firmly bullish for the FTSE as a sign of growing dovish sentiment within the bank. On the other hand, if the BOE plays its cards close to its chest today, with no shift in voting, and no clear timing signal in the outlook, GBP is likely to continue higher near-term creating headwinds for the FTSE.

Technical Views

FTSE

For now the FTSE sits in the lower half of the bull channel off last year’s lows. Price is testing above the corrective bear channel highs and with momentum studies turning higher, focus is on a fresh test of the 8,331.6 level and a continuation higher. To the downside, the bull channel lows and the 8,023.5 level remains the key support area to note. 

(Click on image to enlarge)

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