GBP/USD after UK GDP beat forecasts with -1.5% QoQ contraction, US CPI due later and could cause a stir in the market. WTI crude oil is in focus ahead of EIA stockpile data & OPEC demand upgrade.

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GBP/USD holds 1.41 after upbeat GD data, US CPI up next 

The GBP/USD is picking up from overnight lows as it paused for breath after 3 days of gains (FXB,UDN). 

UK GDP -1.5% QoQ, better than the -1.7% contraction forecast amid lockdown and Brexit. The monthly GDP rose 2.1% in March, ahead of the 1.3% forecast and up from 0.4% in February as the UK economy prepared for re-opening. 

A risk off tone in the market is supporting the safe haven US Dollar. 

US CPI is due later today and could create a stir in the markets. Expectation is for a 3.6% YoY rise in inflation versus 2.6% in March. 

Where next for GBP/USD? 

GBP/USD has been trending quietly higher over the past month with momentum picking up over recent days.  

GBP/USD is just easing back from an 11 week high reached in the previous session, which has brought the RSI out of overbought conditions, just. We could see further consolidation at this level before the price aims higher. 

GBP/USD bulls will need break above the one month resistance trendline at around 1.4170 for further gains towards the late February high of 1.4250 and 1.43 round number. 

To negate the near term uptrend, it would take a move below 1.40 the psychological level and resistance turned support, which capped gains on numerous occasions across the past 10 week. 

WTI crude oil looks to EIA after stockpiles fall, OPEC raises demand outlook 

Oil is on the rise for the third straight day, boosted by falling crude stockpiles and an optimistic OPEC outlook. 

The API report revealed a 2.53 million barrel draw in inventories in the week ending May 7^th. 

OPEC raised its oil demand forecast for the second half of 2021, whilst cutting estimates for the current quarter. 

Colonial Pipeline disruptions and the covid crisis in India continue to provide headwinds. 

EIA inventory data is due later today. Expectations are for a 2.1 million barrel draw. 

Where next for WTI crude oil? 

WTI crude oil has been trending in an ascending channel since early April. The price trades above its 20 & 50 sma on the daily chart. The RSI is also supportive of further gains as it sits in bullish territory, but still some distance from overbought. 

Any move higher would need to break through key resistance zone 66.25-75 the May high and high March 15. A break above here could bring 68.00 the 13 month high hit in March back into play.  

Failure to break through this resistance zone could create a double top pattern, which is a bearish chart pattern so could lead to the price to ease back towards 63.50 the bottom of the ascending channel and the 20 SMA.  It would take a move below 62.50 for the sellers to really gain momentum (OIL, BNO).