• Trump's assassination attempt shocks markets
• NETH25 has risen 20% YTD
• ECB meeting to affect Eurozone stocks
• ASML earnings pivotal for NETH25

Global markets are starting the week with hints of the “Trump trade”, which is pushing global stock indices slightly lower.

The developments surrounding the assassination attempt over former US President Donald Trump adds another factor to watch this week for our best-performing European stock index so far in 2024.

The NETH25 index, which tracks 25 of the largest and most actively traded shares on the Euronext Amsterdam, has already risen over 20% so far this year.
 

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Will it climb higher?

The European Central Bank meeting is set to dominate the Eurozone’s markets calendar.

Meanwhile, semiconductor superstar ASML – the biggest stock on the NETH25 index and also one of Europe’s best performers – is due to release its earnings, along with its key customer, TSMC.

With NETH25 forecasted to add another 9.4% by mid-2025, this week may determine how quickly it can get there.

Events Watchlist:

• Monday, July 15th: US Republican National convention kicks off (till Thursday, July 18th)

It’s a foregone conclusion that Trump will officially accept the nomination as the Republican party’s presidential candidate this week.

However, the attempt to assassinate him over the weekend is seen boosting his chances of returning to the White House.

European indices may be weighed down by the fear that the next US President may ramp up the US-EU trade war and darken the Eurozone’s economic outlook, and its stocks in tandem.

• Wednesday, July 17th: ASML quarterly earnings

ASML’s shares is forecasted to move by as much as 5.5% up or down, depending how markets receive its latest financial results, and what management conveys about its 2024 sales target (EUR27.6 billion) and the expected sales recovery in the second half of the year.

While this stock is forecasted to rise by another 8.7% over the next 12 months, the movements around ASML’s earnings this week are bound to move the broader NETH25 as well.

• Thursday, July 18th: ECB decision; Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) earnings

The ECB is roundly expected to leave its rates unchanged this week, with an 86% chance of another rate cut at its September meeting.

The NETH25 index fell after the previous ECB rate cut in early June, though the index climbed an average 0.3% upwards over each of the prior ECB decisions from the 12 months before.

Also, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is due to release its earnings at 6:00AM GMT Thursday.

TSMC accounts for 28% of ASML’s revenue.

Hence, better-than-expected earnings out of TSMC is set to boost ASML’s shares and the NETH25 index in tandem, with the opposite likely proving true as well.

Here’s a comprehensive list of other key economic data and events due next week:

Monday, July 15

• CNH: China medium-term lending rate, 2Q GDP, June industrial production, retail sales, property investments, jobless rate; start of China’s Third Plenum
• EU50 index: Eurozone May industrial production
• US500 index: Speeches by Fed Chair Jerome Powell, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly; Republican National Convention kicks off
• Goldman Sachs earnings

Tuesday, July 16

• EUR: Eurozone May trade balance; Germany July ZEW survey expectations
• CAD: Canada June CPI
• US30 index: US June retail sales; speech by Fed Governor Adriana Kugler
• Morgan Stanley and Bank of America earnings

Wednesday, July 17

• NZD: New Zealand 2Q CPI
• SG20 index: Singapore June exports
• EUR: Eurozone June CPI (final)
• UK100 index: UK June CPI, PPI
• RUS2000 index: US June industrial production; Fed Beige Book; Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin to make informal remarks on US economy
• NETH25 index: ASML earnings

Thursday, July 18

• JPY: Japan June trade
• AUD: Australia June unemployment rate
• CHINAH index: China to issue communique post-Third Plenum
• GBP: UK May unemployment rate, June jobless claims
• EUR: European Central Bank rate decision
• USD index: US weekly initial jobless claims; speeches by San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman
• TSMC, Netflix earnings

Friday, July 19

• JP225 index: Japan June national CPI
• GER40 index: Germany June PPI
• US400 index: Speeches by New York Fed President John Williams, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic

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