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Two decades ago, everyone was heralding China's arrival as the next hegemonic power. America's decline, economically, demographically, and socially, was becoming so obvious that it could only give way, as history has repeatedly shown, to the rise of a new superpower. But that was without taking into account the fact that China would follow the same path.

China's major economic development as we know it began in the 1980s. After several decades of communism, China liberalized its economy and opened up to the market. It joined the global march initiated by the United States in 1945 and developed at an unprecedented rate. Thanks to growth of more than 10% per year until the end of the 2000s, it managed to lift more than 800 million people out of poverty, with a population of around 1.3 billion. As an integral part of globalization, it also became dependent on it: during the major slowdown linked to the 2008 financial crisis, its GDP slowed sharply and the country sought to rebuild itself. It then established new partnerships, particularly in Eurasia with the New Silk Road. At the same time, it is gradually lowering interest rates to support investment, particularly in its real estate sector, which has grown steadily and at a deliberately excessive rate...

Over the years, however, China has faced a series of crises: in addition to the economic crisis, there has been a demographic crisis and a real estate crisis, compounded by the global health crisis that began in the now infamous city of Wuhan.

In recent years, the country has therefore been trying to maintain its economy in order to meet its national requirements and the needs of its population. It is using all possible means, including the repurchase of private debt by the public sector to inject new liquidity, as the United States (and Europe) have been doing for several years.

Given the profound ideological differences between these two countries, one wonders whether the country still controls its economy or whether the economy has taken over here too... All these policies have led to an increase in public and private debt, which now stands at nearly 300% of GDP.

Essentially, China is following the same path as the American Empire, albeit with a time lag. The United States experienced its great economic, demographic, industrial, and social development in the early 1950s, while China did so thirty years later. Similarly, China's decline is only just beginning, while that of the United States began more than twenty years ago. Throughout history, superpowers have always succeeded one another. Seventeenth-century Italy gave way to the Netherlands, which gave way to England and then to the United States, in a continuous cycle that has lasted until the present day, with the 21st century awaiting the rise of a new hegemon.

In this period of uncertainty, the rivalry between the two world powers is more intense than ever. The United States is attempting to maintain its dominance, while China is striving to bring about the definitive downfall of the American empire. This confrontation can be observed in the development of their domestic markets, but also in their alliances and rivalries abroad.  Each country is seeking new sources of growth, hence their involvement in economic and geopolitical issues and their competition in new technologies, the military industry, and renewable energies. Certain countries and continents are becoming collateral players, including Taiwan, which is of interest to both powers, regardless of their respective claims.

The two countries may also clash in other ways, particularly in their position as the world's leading creditors. With the creation of the IMF and the World Bank, followed by the Marshall Plan, the United States has long played the role of the world's major creditor, particularly in Latin America. But this trend has reversed and China, through a different strategy, has regained this position, particularly in Africa.

Finally, this confrontation can take place directly, as in the trade war between the two powers since 2018, the currency war with China's de-dollarization (sale of US bonds, development of trade in currencies other than the dollar, etc.) or Beijing's gold purchases. These purchases enable China to weaken US power by reducing the influence of the dollar, thereby creating the conditions for a new international financial system. This is particularly true given that the country's purchases have long been made discreetly to conceal their real impact. China has thus become the leading purchaser of gold in recent years and is now the sixth largest holder.

So what is the basis for the rivalry between China and the US? The pursuit of growth or, from a philosophical perspective, the desire for power. Both countries are seeking constant growth and, with such high levels of debt, they need to generate growth to ensure the income necessary to repay these loans.

However, China has never sought to play the role of a hegemonic power. Although it has created institutions and structures as powerful as those of the United States (multinational corporations, universities, infrastructure, etc.), these forces have remained largely concentrated within the country, for the simple reason that Chinese ideology has never had a hegemonic, global reach throughout its history. Unlike the United States, whose culture spreads throughout the world according to the law of liberalism, China has only drawn inspiration from it for its own development, without exporting its model beyond its borders.

Thus, leaving a formerly unipolar world behind, it is now clear to everyone that the emerging new order will not be led by a unipolar force, even though China is the main contender as the world's second largest economy. But if China, whose decline has already begun, does not intend to take over once the American empire has ceded power, which power will rule the world to come? The answer is slowly taking shape before our eyes...

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