The FTSE Finish Line - Monday, March 17

By Patrick Munnelly of Tickmill

Monday, March 17, 2025 12:35 PM EDT

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The UK's FTSE 100 index, comprising major companies, saw a slight increase on Monday, supported by the energy and metal mining sectors, as investors prepared for a series of central bank announcements this week, including one from the Bank of England. The FTSE 100, which is heavily weighted towards exporters, climbed by 0.2% after experiencing two consecutive weeks of losses, although a 1.3% decline in shares of heavyweight AstraZeneca limited the overall gains. British stocks have been shaken over the past fortnight, mirroring global markets, due to worries that U.S. President Donald Trump's policies might lead to a slowdown in the largest economy in the world. Given these economic uncertainties, the upcoming U.S. Federal Reserve meeting, which wraps up on Wednesday, will be scrutinized for insights into policymakers' views on possible further interest rate reductions. Meanwhile, the Bank of England is anticipated to maintain steady rates on Thursday, with crucial information on whether the central bank will pursue only gradual adjustments in the future. Recent data indicated that the UK economy unexpectedly shrank in January. Next week, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to provide an update on public finances, based on an evaluation by the Office for Budget Responsibility, which oversees Britain's fiscal policies.

Single Stock Stories & Broker Updates:

AstraZeneca announced it will acquire EsoBiotec for up to $1 billion. EsoBiotec's ENaBL platform enables rapid genetic modification of immune cells for cell therapy. The deal includes an initial payment of $425 million and up to $575 million based on milestones. The transaction is expected to close in Q2 2025 and will not affect AstraZeneca's financial guidance for that year.
Shares of Phoenix Group rose 6.43%, the highest since October 2. The company raised its 2026 adjusted operating profit guidance to £1.1 billion from £900 million and total cash generation guidance to £5.1 billion from £4.4 billion. The 2024 adjusted operating PBT is £825 million, exceeding analysts’ forecast of £734 million. Analysts noted strong capital generation with no issues in paying the progressive dividend policy, now yielding 10.6%. The stock has gained 7.94% YTD up to Friday's close.
International Consolidated Airlines Group climbs 1.6%, among FTSE 100's top gainers. Jefferies views recent share price weakness as "overdone," citing strong transatlantic and premium demand; maintains "buy" rating with a 283p price target. Shares have dropped ~18.5% this month, marking their worst decline since Nov 2021, now down ~5% YTD after a 95% surge in 2024. Of 17 brokerages, 14 rate it "buy" or higher, 3 as "hold"; median price target stands at 400p (LSEG data).
Shares of CVS Group rise 10.7%, the highest since September 2024, after RBC Capital Markets upgrades the stock to "outperform" and raises the price target to 1,500p from 940p. The brokerage notes that Australia's practice margins are misunderstood by investors. The UK's veterinary sector faces a market investigation by the Competition and Markets Authority due to pricing concerns. RBC believes clarity on the investigation could boost buying interest. The average rating among eight brokerages is "buy," with a median price target of 1,400p. The stock is up 30% YTD.
Qinetiq shares fell over 16%, the biggest loser on the FTSE mid-cap, marking its worst day since the 2006 IPO. The British defence group cited tough conditions delaying contract awards and geopolitical uncertainties affecting higher-margin U.S. sales. It now expects FY25 organic sales growth of ~2% (down from high single digits), along with a £140 million goodwill impairment charge and £35-40 million in other charges. Jefferies predicts a 20% consensus downgrade for FY25 and 10% for FY26. The stock has returned to levels seen in early March, despite being up 4.3% YTD after a 34.4% rise in 2024.
Shares of Marshalls fell 5.5% as adjusted pretax profit dropped 2% to £52.2 million and FY revenue fell 8% to £619.2 million. The company anticipates a market recovery later this year; MSLH is down about 20% YTD.
UK gas producer Energean (ENOG) fell 11%, its lowest since October 3, amid concerns that Carlyle's $945 million asset purchase could collapse due to unresolved regulatory hurdles in Italy and Egypt. ENOG indicated that the deal with Carlyle may not proceed and its stock is down ~10% YTD.
Shares of Victoria rise 6.37% to 93.4p as Alec Pratt is appointed CFO, replacing Brian Morgan who will stay until late-June. Stock is up 39.07% YTD.

Technical & Trade View

FTSE Bias: Bullish Above Bearish below 8950