The Canadian Cannabis Report Monday, Nov. 30
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Editors' note: This article discusses one or more penny stocks and/or microcaps. Such stocks are easily manipulated; do your own careful due diligence.
For the trading week ended November 20, my (proprietary) Canadian Cannabis Company Index (MCCCI) skyrocketed 23.2% compared to the prior week when it was virtually unchanged. The index consists of 25 stocks, many of which are among the most widely held holdings of the 3 ETFs (MJ, CNBS, and THCX) that I consider to be a reliable barometer of the Canadian cannabis sector. The MCCCI's differentiated business model is both weighted and market capitalization based because I believe that this approach best represents the current landscape of the Canadian cannabis sector. As I have said here before, I also believe there will be a pronounced reset in this sector, likely in Q3 or Q4 of this year including but not limited to business failures, consolidation, and a significant downtrend in valuation. My mid-year report showed that the MCCCI had decreased by 36% YTD, which may be a guidepost for the rest of 2020. The survivors will be those companies that can operate profitably when the equilibrium price is established by the supply/demand dynamics. The “return to normalcy” I referenced last week was admittedly derailed this week. But since 1 data point does not make a trend, I am maintaining my long-term view regarding the sector. Now let us look at this week’s good, bad, and ugly stocks.
THE GOOD
There were 9 stocks that increased by more than 10%, which is my metric for inclusion in this category: ACB +46.8%, TGODF +27.6%, EMHTF +27.3%, APHA +26.1%, TRSSF +25.9%, CGC +22.3%, HEXO +20.5%, OGI 18.7% and CRON +17.3%. I believe that Aurora Cannabis Group’s significant rise may very well lure more short-term traders to this stock and I have advised my private clients accordingly. Source: seekingalpha.com
THE BAD
There was 1 stock that decreased by more than 10% (but less than 20%) which is my metric for inclusion in this category: CBWTF -13.5%. Auxly Cannabis Group Inc., which I characterized last week as “the consummate chameleon stock” upheld its reputation by its record-setting 4th consecutive appearance as either a good bad or ugly stock list. On 11/24/20 the company announced a $12M upsized bought-deal offering. How this news may affect CBWTFs stock price going forward is a coin toss.
THE UGLY
There were no stocks that decreased by 20% or more, which is my metric for inclusion in this category.
VALUATION METRIC REVIEW
There was a 23.9% increase in the “Big Four” compared to virtually no change for the prior 2 weeks. In addition, the 10 highest capitalization MCCCI portfolio stocks all traded upward.
RECAP
The relative strength index increased by 29.9% compared to last week when it decreased by 8.4%. I believe that Q4 results thus far further support my 2020 thesis regarding the MCCCI as a microscope of the Canadian cannabis sector. Let us see how this increasingly volatile sector has performed at the same time next week shall we?
What do you have for US cannabis investors?