Shmexit, Stage Right

Global Equity Markets melted down Friday and depending on one’s vantage point, it varied from -16 % (Spain) to merely -3.6% for US Equities. (SPY). The flight out of Eurozone assets hit frenzied levels and at one point Gold was up almost $100 per ounce before calming down to only up about $60.  The pound dropped over -8%, levels not seen since the 1980’s, while British equities dropped – 11%

The ultimate alternative currency Bitcoin rose sharply on Friday (already on a tear) indicating that Central bankers and the “establishment” are in a tailspin of credibility.   Forget about rate hikes by the Fed for quite some time as uncertainty over Brexit fallout permeates the global markets. The trickle- down effect to other EU members, coupled with slow growth and deflation worries will keep Yellen and central bankers off balance.

The bankers and politicians still in power now have their hands more than full.  First they will have to stabilize the markets, then quell fears about other countries leaving the Euro, while jawboning about how the EU will continue to achieve financial growth while dealing with immigration issues. Quite the balancing act!

Many voters who opted in for the Brexit were shocked that what they voted for actually won. In fact, regions of England most likely to be most adversely impacted by an exit voted in favor of leaving. Huh? Yup even their political leaders  were shocked when Brexit won and they expressed remorse after seeing the markets response, not knowing why they stuffed the ballot box the way they did. In fact, there are calls now on a referendum to rescind the referendum to Brexit.

The younger generation of voters were horrified at the Brexit and its impact on their futures.  Google found that leading searches on its engine were for people trying to find out just what the EU is or looking to figure out how to get to Canada.

What is most amazing is the how many voters for the Brexit were shocked at the financial carnage as they woke up 10% poorer. In fact, It’s not as though they did not have far warning.

George Soros, the guy who beat the Bank of England for over a Billion dollars (when that was real money) 25 years ago warned of the dire consequences of a Brexit, but voter’s shrugged off his ruminations. The pro Brexit Brits must have been thinking…. Just what can the world’s most successful macro investor and largest philanthropist know that voters don’t know? I’m not generally in the school of guru following but every once in a while it’s smart to pay attention to the right one when it’s his home court advantage.

Soros who is now 85 years old demonstrated once again that he has not lost his touch or ready for a nursing home.   Seeing the upcoming seismic geopolitical shifts and increased volatility, he recently resumed his position as head trader of his mega billion-dollar hedge-fund.  He then announced he was buying gold and gold stocks, shorting equities and the pound.

Meanwhile presidential hopeful, Donald Trump landed in Scotland on his fledging resort / golf-course project, applauded the Brexit vote while pontificating how the financial bomb that just hit Britain will be a boom for his business due to a devalued pound. Many Brits took this as a small consolation to massive losses incurred on Friday and future uncertainty.

One player on the world’s stage that is licking his chops is Vladimir Putin as his stockpile of gold has increased in value as has his ability to exploit geo -political gains that an endangered EU presents.

The technical picture across various asset classes has broken wide open. Gold and gold miners exploded higher hitting levels last seen in 2014, and with central bankers keeping printing presses on at full tilt while the Brexit fallout unfolds, there is no telling where the yellow metal could end up.

US equities closed down -1.5 to 2% for the week and now down for the year. One harbinger that things were not so rosy was that our Modern family was in discord with 4 out of the 5 key sectors showing weakness.

The biggest question now is just how much intervention the international plunge protection team will take to obscures the real truth. Especially now, risk control and understanding how to play extreme volatility will separate the men from the boys.

 

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