Seeking Global Value From ETFs In The Land Down Under

International ETFs have been under fire this summer as shifting currency woes and economic forecasts continue to indicate signs of trouble. Europe has continued to show relative overall weakness despite the commitment to lower rates and quantitative easing efforts. Now emerging markets and other Asian nations are starting to show signs of weakness in the month of September.

The natural instinct for most investors is to react to these declines by reducing exposure and managing uncertainty by moving to cash or other opportunities. However, if you have cash on the sidelines that you are looking to put to work, these sell offs can be a profitable trading opportunity for global value seekers.

One country that has been hit particularly hard during the month of September is Australia. The iShares MSCI Australia ETF EWA has fallen more than 9% this month despite hitting new highs in August. EWA tracks 70 large and mid-cap companies within the ‘land down under’ with an overwhelming 50% of the portfolio dedicated to financial stocks.

These losses have been mirrored (or some say driven) by declines in the Australian dollar as well. The CurrencyShares Australian Dollar Trust FXA has been relatively stable all year prior to a 5% decline this month that has foreign investors nervous. The flight to quality in the U.S. dollar index and subsequent decline of the Aussie dollar makes investments overseas less attractive relative to domestic equities.

A look at a 1-year chart of EWA and FXA shows a relatively high level of correlation between the two asset classes. Peaks and valleys associated with currency fluctuations have also been mirrored in Australian stock prices as well.

ewa_fxa

In my opinion, this sell off is creating a potential opportunity as EWA nears prior support levels that were impactful in the February and March timeframe. If EWA can hold above that key $24.50 area on the chart, it will likely bring some stabilization and confidence back into this important Pacific Rim economy.

ewa

FXA is also nearing a prior level of consolidation that may help boost Australian stocks given the oversold nature of the current price action.

While a direct investment in Australian equities may be too concentrated for some, there are a number of diversified international indexes with overweight exposure to this country. One ETF that specifically targets Pacific Rim stocks is the iShares MSCI Pacific ex Japan ETF EPP. This fund includes 60% exposure to Australia with smaller allocations to Hong Kong, Singapore, and New Zealand. EPP currently has over $3 billion in total assets spread among 145 individual companies.

Income investors may be inclined to focus on the iShares International Select Dividend ETF IDV, which has over 19% of its portfolio dedicated to high yield Australian stocks. IDV selects 100 established and high quality dividend companies of foreign developed nations. The current 30-day SEC yield on this ETF is 4.24%, which is substantially higher than many domestic counterparts. I recently increased exposure to this holding for clients in my Strategic Income portfolio to take advantage of the most recent pullback and subsequently increase the comprehensive yield of the strategy.

No matter what vehicle you ultimately use to play a pullback in Australia, the most important thing to remember is employing a risk management strategy to guard against a deeper correction. A trailing stop loss or sell discipline will allow you to define your risk, while still participating in a turnaround in this country.

Disclosure: At the time this article was published, the author was long TDIV and VYM.

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