Realty Mean Reversion Started In Vancouver

Some takeaways from the latest data from the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver (REBGV), see Suddenly, there are tonnes of homes for sale in Vancouver and prices are coming down.:

  • The number of homes for sale jumped by 27.7% in January, compared to January 2018.
  • From December to January, homes for sale jumped 244% compared with an increase of 100% over the same period last year.
  • Sales dropped 39.3% in January 2019 compared with January 2018.
  • 6.8 out of every 100 detached homes on the market is now selling in any given month, and 13.6 out of every 100 condos.
  • The benchmark detached home price was $1.45 million in January 2019, down 150k or 9.1% in the past year. For condos, the benchmark price was $658k down 1.9% in the past year, and 6.6% in the last 6 months.
  •  40,000 new housing units are expected to hit the market over the next two years.

Naturally, speculators and real estate sector workers are urging the government to do something to get prices leaping again–even as homes remain the most expensive ever relative to income. See Pressure mounts on OSFI to ease mortgage stress test.

The good news is that potential buyers are doing more looking with less urge to bite at any price, and this is a very positive development. The government should not try to arrest a much-needed mean reversion cycle for Canadian real estate. Attempting to do so is counter-productive to savings accumulation and affordable housing–two pillars of economic (and social) strength and stability.

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