The Reserve Bank of Australia has moved into a wait-and-see mode before deciding on whether they need to hike interest rates further. At the latest central bank meeting, they kept rates unchanged at 4.10% indicating that the July monthly CPI indicator showed another drop that they are on target to reach the projected inflation target range by late 2025. There are some signs of growth slowing, uncertainties around the path of China's economy, a financial squeeze on many domestic households, and the lag effects of existing interest rates gave the RBA sufficient reasons to hold rates once again.
However, moving forward, they are still concerned about inflation in particular the rising services and rent inflation, and have declared they will be data dependent for future decisions The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is the only central bank that considers they've done enough in hiking interest rates, so the peak has already been reached.
If the RBA continue to be encouraged by incoming data then they too will follow suit and this could allow the Australian dollar to fall against the New Zealand dollar into the end of the year. The seasonals do favor the Aussie New Zealand dollar downside with an average fall of 1.95% between September 5 and December 18 over the last 23 years. So will we see the Aussie New Zealand dollar fall again this year?
Obviously, this will depend on the incoming data for both the RBA and the RBNZ with so many uncertainties both domestically and internationally circulating right now.
Major Trade Risks: The major trade risk is that the RBA sees signs of growing inflation and needs to hike interest rates again which should lift the AUD against the NZD.
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular ...
Disclaimer: Past results and past seasonal patterns are no indication of future performance, in particular, future market trends. seasonax GmbH neither recommends nor approves of any particular financial instrument, group of securities, segment of industry, analysis interval or any particular idea, approach, strategy or attitude nor provides consulting nor brokerage nor asset management services. seasonax GmbH hereby excludes any explicit or implied trading recommendation, in particular, any promise, implication or guarantee that profits are earned and losses excluded, provided, however, that in case of doubt, these terms shall be interpreted in abroad sense. Any information provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media shall not be construed as any kind of guarantee, warranty or representation, in particular as set forth in a prospectus. Any user is solely responsible for the results or the trading strategy that is created, developed or applied. Indicators, trading strategies and functions provided by seasonax GmbH or on this website or any other kind of data media may contain logical or other errors leading to unexpected results, faulty trading signals and/or substantial losses. seasonax GmbH neither warrants nor guarantees the accuracy, completeness, quality, adequacy or content of the information provided by it or on this website or any other kind of data media. Any user is obligated to comply with any applicable capital market rules of the applicable jurisdiction. All published content and images on this website or any other kind of data media are protected by copyright. Any duplication, processing, distribution or any form of utilisation beyond the scope of copyright law shall require the prior written consent of the author or authors in question. Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or lifestyle. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. Testimonials appearing on this website may not be representative of other clients or customers and is not a guarantee of future performance or success.
