Pairs In Focus This Week - Sunday, Nov. 20

10 and 20 us dollar bill

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Gold

Gold markets will continue to be very noisy in the coming days, but what’s interesting about this past week is that there wasn't much movement. After all, the previous week had been extraordinarily bullish based upon the CPI numbers coming in a little lower than anticipated in the United States, but there was actually no follow-through.

What does this tell me? It tells me that there is not a whole lot of faith in the idea of the Federal Reserve slowing things down. In fact, James Bullard has said recently that people need to get used to idea of the Federal Reserve being “higher for longer.” In this environment, I suspect that the next move for gold is lower, although I’m not calling for some type of meltdown.

Gold


WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market has fallen rather hard during the course of the week to slice through the $80 level. At this point, it looks like traders are starting to focus on the idea of a lack of demand, as economies around the world continue to struggle.

If crude oil breaks down below the lows of last month, it’s likely that this market could continue to drift toward the 200-week EMA. After that, it could open up a move all the way down to the $60 level.

More likely than not, we probably will see some type of bounce in crude oil, but bounces will almost certainly present fading opportunities for those who are willing to short this market.

WTI Crude Oil


Bitcoin

Bitcoin has had a slightly positive week, which in and of itself is a bit of a victory due to the fact that the world is still reeling from the FTX blowup and the potential of Genesis doing the same. 

Nonetheless, the previous candlestick was much longer than the one that this past week produced, so I think there is still some downward momentum. Fading rallies that show signs of exhaustion will be the approach that I think a lot of traders will be utilizing. At this point, we could see Bitcoin go down to the $15,000 level rather quickly.

BTC/USD


AUD/USD

The AUD/USD currency pair had rallied initially during the trading week, but it looks as though the pair is going to continue to see negativity. At this point, the weekly candlestick ended up being a bit of a shooting star, and that suggests that we are going to continue seeing downward pressure.

The 0.67 level was an area that I thought the pair could reach, which it has now done. Whether or not we can continue to see it go higher is a completely different question, and I think breaking down from here makes quite a bit of sense, especially if yields in the United States continue to rise. The 0.65 level underneath could be the target to aim for.

AUD/USD


GBP/USD

The GBP/USD currency pair initially tried to rally during the week, piercing the 1.20 level. This level is a large, round, psychologically-significant figure, and an area that traders should be paying close attention to.

The fact that the pair ended up forming a shooting star here, just as we saw in the Australian dollar, suggests that the pair is ready to go much lower. If we see a break down below the bottom of the candlestick, then it’s possible that the British pound could go looking to the 1.15 level yet again. At this point, that does make a certain amount of sense considering all of the recessionary headwinds that we have seen in the United Kingdom.

GBP/USD


USD/JPY

The USD/JPY pair has bounced a bit against the Japanese yen, as it has been trying to stabilize at what could be thought of as a potential trendline. Nonetheless, the JPY140 level will likely cause a bit of noise.

Ultimately, the huge red candlestick from the previous week suggests that the pair could fall lower, but at this point, it’s going to revolve around the Bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan is going to continue to see the need to fight interest rates, so I think it’s probably only a matter time before we see the pair turn around and continue the uptrend.

USD/JPY


USD/CAD

The US dollar has bounced a bit during the trading week, as we have seen it test previous resistance, and now it looks like the Canadian dollar may be on its back foot, especially as the crude oil market continues to struggle.

If oil continues to fall like it has this past week, it makes sense that we could see the US dollar reach toward the 1.40 level over the next several weeks. At this point, I think short-term pullbacks may end up offering short-term buying opportunities in a grind higher.

USD/CAD


S&P 500

The S&P 500 had initially tried to rally during the course of the week, but it found a lot of trouble at the 50-week EMA. By doing so, it shows that the market is running out of momentum, and much like the gold market, it must be noted that we saw a massive surge higher after the CPI figures from last week, and then it simply went nowhere.

What this tells me is that there is a real threat to the downside at this point. Breaking below the 3900 level would open up new short positions in my account.

S&P 500


More By This Author:

EUR/USD Forecast: Pulls Back From 200-Day EMA Yet Again
Gold Forecast: Markets Show Signs Of Weakness
S&P 500 Forecast: Pulls Back From 4000 Again

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