Pairs In Focus This Week - Sunday, May 14
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GBP/USD
The British pound gave up significant momentum and fell hard during the week, as the 1.2650 level has served as a major barrier. That being said, the 1.2350 level underneath appears to offer support, so the GBP/USD currency pair may find buyers over the next several sessions. Therefore, I think the pair may continue to go back and forth in the same 200-point range that has been seen over the last six weeks.
EUR/USD
The euro sliced through support during the week, pulling back from the 200-week EMA. At this point, a break below the 1.09 level would open up the possibility of a further move down to the 1.07 level.
Ultimately, I think buyers will eventually come back into this market, but the EUR/USD pair may experience a week or two of negativity. The 1.05 level underneath appears to hold a significant amount of support that is just waiting to step in, so the pair may carve out a range over the short-term.
USD/CAD
The US dollar bounced significantly from the 1.33 level, an area that has been in massive support previously. The 50-week EMA sits just below the candlestick for the week, and it should offer some support.
On the other hand, the 1.38 level above is a major resistance barrier that will be very difficult to get past. If the USD/CAD pair manages to break above the 1.38 level, it could really start to take off to the upside. Pay close attention to the oil markets, because they will have an influence on the Canadian dollar as well.
AUD/USD
The Australian dollar initially tried to rally during the past week, but it touched the 50-week EMA and then fell rather precipitously. At this point, the 0.66 level will almost certainly be tested. If the Aussie breaks down below there on a daily close, it’s likely that it would continue to fall, perhaps reaching down to the 0.64 level.
If it instead holds onto the 0.66 level, then it’s possible that we could see a bounce back toward the 0.68 level. While I believe that consolidation may be the norm, this last week has been particularly ugly.
CAD/JPY
The Canadian dollar has fallen a bit against the Japanese yen to test the 50-week EMA, before turning around and showing signs of life. At this point, I believe that the JPY102.00 level is an area that should be closely monitored as it has been both significant support and significant resistance in the past.
If we were to see a break above that level, then I believe that the Canadian dollar would eventually try to reach the highs against the Japanese yen as well. Furthermore, it is probably worth noting that the Japanese yen is on its back foot against most currencies.
NZD/USD
The New Zealand dollar had a rather noisy week, as it initially tried to reach the 0.64 level before turning around and showing signs of exhaustion. The market could very well be trying to break down through the support just underneath, opening up the possibility of a move down to the 0.60 level.
Ultimately, it looks as though the New Zealand dollar may continue struggling, and it’s probably worth noting that the US dollar has shown itself to be very resilient this past week.
USD/JPY
The US dollar initially fell during the week, but it found enough support underneath to start rallying again. That being said, the JPY138 level above appears to be a massive resistance barrier, and we see a break above there, then a move to the JPY140 level could be likely.
Furthermore, an argument could be made that the “measured move” of the triangle suggests that even the JPY148 level above could be within reach. All things being equal, the 50-week EMA underneath should continue to offer support as well.
USD/CHF
The US dollar turned around completely against the Swiss franc during the course of the week, but it appears as though there is still a bit of noise near the 0.90 level. If we see a break above there, then it’s likely that the market could go looking to the 0.92 level, and perhaps to the 0.94 level. On the other hand, a break of the 0.88 level underneath would be a major turn, as it has been a huge support level on longer-term charts.
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