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Bitcoin

Bitcoin will continue to do very little, as there’s almost no reason for it to rally. After all, the risk appetite is horrible right now, and Bitcoin is about as far out on the spectrum as you can get.

With that being the case, you may want to pay close attention to the $18,000 level. If it finally breaks down below there, then it may open up a move down to the $15,000 level. Rallies at this point will continue to be sold into, as there’s just no reason to think that Bitcoin or anything else crypto-related will see massive inflows.

Gold

Gold markets have gone back and forth during the course the week, as the yellow metal continues hang around a small range. At this point, the $1680 level has offered resistance on a bounce. On the other hand, if the metal were to turn around and break down below the $1620 level, then it could drive down to the $1500 level rather quickly.

As long as the Federal Reserve continues to keep its monetary policy tight, it’s difficult to imagine a scenario where the gold market could truly take off. It appears as though the US dollar will continue to be a major headwind for gold markets going forward.

EUR/USD

The euro has rallied significantly during the week, but it is still difficult to be bullish in this current market environment. The parity level will almost certainly cause a bit of resistance, so you may want to pay close attention to that level for a shorting opportunity. The euro has no real argument for going higher, although there have been recent headlines about an energy-saving plan in the EU. I would warn to prepare to be disappointed.

GBP/USD

The British pound went back and forth during the week, as it continues to bounce around in a 500 point range. The 1.15 level continues to serve as massive resistance, while the 1.10 level looks to be supported.

At this point, I think the pound will continue to shuffle along a sideways path. That being said, the US dollar appears to be much more viable than the British pound, so I prefer to fade signs of exhaustion over the short-term.

USD/JPY

The US dollar initially shot higher during the week, but the Bank of Japan stepped in and intervened on Friday. That being said, it’s difficult to get overly excited about trying to short this pair, as the Bank of Japan is still trapped.

The JPY150 level appears to be the next target, but I would anticipate a little bit of a pullback. I have absolutely no interest in trying to short this pair as long as the bank of Japan continues to suppress interest rates.

WTI Crude Oil

The West Texas Intermediate crude oil market has been rather volatile during the week, but it has been essentially hanging around the $85 level. There is a huge push between whether or not there is going to be enough demand, as the global economy is almost certainly heading into recession.

On the other hand, one must recall the recent 2 million barrels per day cut from OPEC. Because of this, I think we are looking at a push/pull type of market, and short-term moves will prove significant.

S&P 500

The S&P 500 rallied for the week, as there has been a lot of noise right around the 3600 level. That being said, the 3800 level above offers resistance, so I believe it will continue to bounce around in a 200-point range.

It appears as though that the S&P 500 is sitting on a major consolidation area from mid-2021 that could cause a little bit of support, but as we are in earnings season, this looks set to remain a “fade the rally” market.

DAX

The German index saw a positive week, but it is still in the midst of forming a rising wedge. Additionally, there’s a lot out there that could cause problems for the European Union, quite frankly.

On Friday, there was a headline that the German Minister of Energy said there was a framework for figuring out an energy price cap for the European Union. This almost never works out, in my opinion, so I think it’s only a matter of time before exhaustion comes in that will begin shorting again. 

That being said, you may want to pay close attention to the EUR12,500 level. If the market were to break down below there, it’s likely that that the DAX may drop even further.

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