Oil Price In The Green Ahead Of OPEC Report Release

Oil prices are trading in the green for a second consecutive day on Tuesday, with WTI Crude snapping above $78.


Oil traders are staying put in their bullish calls placed last week, very much noticeable in the options market. With the monthly OPEC Report due to be released this Tuesday, more upside could be on the horizon in case current output quotas are being respected by OPEC participants. 

The US Dollar, meanwhile, has pared back a fragment of last week's losses with a positive return in the US Dollar Index (DXY). The focal point for this Tuesday is the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which will provide clues to traders about the trajectory of the recent disinflation trend. Expect no big moves in the DXY, though rather some tweaking in terms of pinpointing the timing of the initial rate cut from the US Federal Reserve. 

Crude Oil (WTI) trades at $78.03 per barrel, and Brent Oil trades at $82.40 per barrel at the time of writing. 


Oil news and market movers: Monthly OPEC report headline risk

  • Exxon had to halt its 188,000 barrels per day production at its facility in Gravenchon, France. The refinery had a fire on Monday, which forced the site to stop all its activities.
  • Russia has reported more drone attacks out of Ukraine on key refinery installations and storage facilities on Russian soil. 
  • OPEC will release on Tuesday its monthly Oil Outlook report. No timing is available on when the report will be released.
  • At 20:30 GMT, the US American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly Crude Oil stock data for the week of March 8. Previous number was a small build of 423,000 barrels. 


Oil Technical Analysis: Another stab at $80

Oil prices appear to be building up pressure to have another go at $80 in the coming days. Crude already made its way back up above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $77.98 and above the key level of $78. Should the OPEC report bear an upbeat surprise on the consumption of Oil or the adherence to the current supply cuts, Crude could rally towards $80 quite easily. 

Oil bulls still clearly see more upside potential seeing the spreads on Oil futures in favour of bullish bets. The break above $80 though does not seem to be taking place that easily, and $86 is appearing as the next cap. Further up, $86.90 follows suit before targeting $89.64 and $93.98 as top levels. 

On the downside, the 100-day and the 55-day Simple Moving Averages (SMA) are near $75.71 and $75.31, respectively. Add the pivotal level near $75.27, and it looks like the downside is very limited and well-equipped to resist the selling pressure. 

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

US WTI Crude Oil: Daily Chart

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