The S&P 500 was up and the Nifty was unchanged last week. Indicators are bullish for the week. Markets are topping. We are transitioning from an inflationary regime to a deflationary collapse. We are way overbought short-term and are overdue a pullback here to as low as the 50 DMA, as we embrace bearish seasonality. The Nifty has started to correct and will likely underperform.

The past week saw US equity markets rally. Most emerging markets were unchanged, as interest rates fell. Transports rose. The Baltic dry index fell. The dollar rose. Commodities were little changed. Valuations continue to be quite expensive, market breadth improved, and the sentiment is now exuberant. Fear fell this week, as a possible reality check from an immediate Fed Pivot loom.

After this rally, a currency crisis should resume and push risky assets to new lows across the board. Deflation is in the air despite the recent inflationary spike and bonds are telegraphing just that. Feels like a 2008-style recession trade has begun, with a potential for a decline in risk assets across the board. The current market is tracking closely the 2000 moves down in the S&P 500, implying a panic low right ahead in the upcoming months (My views do not matter, kindly pay attention to the levels). A dollar rebound from major support is a likely catalyst.

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The S&P 500 is near all-time highs. We have bounced from recent lows without capitulation. This suggests the lows may not be in and the regime has changed from buying the dip to selling the rip. We may get a final flush down soon. Risky assets should continue breaking to the downside across the board, as earnings growth peaks.

The Fed has aggressively tightened into a recession. Deflationary busts often begin after major inflationary scares. The market has rebounded after correcting significantly, and more is left on the downside. The Dollar, commodities, and bond yields are continuing to flash major warning signs.

Global yield curves have inverted significantly reflecting a major upcoming recession. The recent steepening of the yield curve, within an inverted context, with rates falling, is a precursor to the next recession, and the riskiest assets will underperform going forward under such conditions. 

The critical levels to watch for the week are 5245 (up) and 5220 (down) on the S&P 500 and 22200 (up) and 22000 (down) on the Nifty. A significant breach of the above levels could trigger the next big move in the above markets.  High beta / P/E will get torched yet again and will likely prove to be a sell on every rise. Gold is increasingly looking like the asset class to own over the next decade. (Gold exploded almost 8 times higher over the decade following the dot-com bust in 2000, just imagine what would happen when this AI bubble bursts? following the recent crypto bubble burst) You can check out last week’s report for a comparison. Love your thoughts and feedback.

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