Is Brexit So Bad For UK Shares?

There is little doubt that Brexit was a major shock to the markets. If you look at the 1 month charts for the FTSE MIB index, you can already see that the recovery started:

The real question is - how far is the correction going to last and to what levels?

The drop of the UK shares was quite substantial - the index fell from above 18,000 to approx. 15,000 points, with trading partially stopped on some shares. However, the drop has not been even - it was actually led by the domestic, PPP (purchase power parity), domestic oriented sectors. Which is, if you pause for a second to think about it, paradoxical - these sectors should not be impacted by the sudden inward looking direction of the economy. So what is going on here?

These sectors (mostly real estate and FMCG) were hammered by a sudden potential drop in their customers base (exports to EU becoming unlikely or more expensive). Another impact (real-estate mostly) comes from a sudden sell-off from the outside-UK investors who found the market more adverse (or who just postponed any further investment decision until later). Long story short, this might be temporary and over the next 3 months we will likely see a recovery in the share prices over there, driven by the investors coming back to more "normal" feelings vs the UK market. After all, this is a developed economy that still continues to function and provide for its consumers needs.

My advice - hang on and don't rally to the sell-off now. Might be worth waiting a bit...

Disclosure: No shares in UK companies, not affiliated with any financial institution that has interests there.

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