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The Indian Rupee (INR) ticks lower at open against the US Dollar (USD) on Wednesday. The USD/INR pair edges up to near 89.35 as the Indian Rupee continues to underperform, with persistent US Dollar’s demand from Indian importers and in the offshore market.

Bankers said that dollar demand, largely from importers and in the offshore market, kicked in and blunted the rally, Reuters reported.

Another reason behind consistent weakness in the Indian Rupee is the continuous outflow of foreign funds from the Indian equity market. So far in November, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers, and have pared stake worth Rs. 17,227.42 crores.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar has turned fragile amid accelerating bets supporting more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. So far in 2025, the Fed has reduced interest rates by 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75%, and is expected to cut them again in the December policy meeting amid weak job market conditions.

On Friday, New York Fed Bank President John Williams warned of slowing economic growth and gradually cooling job market, while supporting the need of further monetary policy adjustments. His dovish comments led to a significant rise in market expectations of an interest rate cut in December.

According to the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.50%-3.75% in the December meeting has increased to 85.3% from 50.1% seen a week ago.

USD/INR Price Forecast
 

In the daily chart, USD/INR trades at 89.3600. The 20-day EMA at 88.9466 rises and price holds above it, keeping a bullish bias. The average has advanced steadily through the latest consolidation, underpinning the uptrend. RSI at 61.23 is positive and not overbought, supporting trend-following appetite. As long as the pair remains above the rising average, dips could stay contained and the advance could extend.

The moving average slope has firmed over recent sessions, and consecutive closes above it maintain upward pressure. RSI stabilizes around the low 60s, indicating healthy momentum without stretch. A daily close back beneath the 20-day EMA would soften the setup and could usher in a broader pause, while sustained strength above the average would keep buyers in control.

Looking down, the August 21 low of 87.07 will act as key support for the pair. On the upside, the all-time high near 89.85 will be a key barrier.

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