Germany Retail Sales Unexpectedly Collapse The Most In Three Decades
Image from Tweet below.
Retail Sales in Germany decreased 1.60 percent in June of 2022 over the previous month. https://t.co/NiPiFizyRy pic.twitter.com/jTAWPXdFHX
— Simply Investor (@InvestorSimply) August 1, 2022
Reuters reports German Retail Sales Post Biggest Year-On-Year Slump Since 1994.
Key Points
- German retailers ended the first half of 2022 with the sharpest year-on-year sales drop in nearly three decades, as inflation, the Ukraine war and the coronavirus pandemic take their toll, data showed on Monday.
- Retail sales in June decreased 8.8% in real terms compared with the same month last year, the biggest drop since the time series began in 1994, said the Federal Statistical Office.
- Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted a drop of 8.0%.
- Retail sales also unexpectedly fell compared with the month before: June retail sales fell 1.6% in real terms, versus analysts' predictions of a 0.2% increase in a Reuters poll.
Trade Surplus Gone
#Germany is failing as an economic powerhouse. You all know my view on this. Apart from E-Vehicles they need to pivot quickly. #France and #Italy better placed with Luxury Goods and tourism. @Halsrethink @PaulGambles2 https://t.co/yfh1kQlE2D
— Jonathan Urlich (@CapitalJon) July 31, 2022
What About European Natural Gas?
The terrifying part of the recent spike in European #NaturalGas prices is the timing. Mid-summer!
— jeroen blokland (@jsblokland) July 30, 2022
I don’t see how we ever get to the above-potential #GDPgrowth forecasts of the EU, IMF, and other economists with rationing coming. pic.twitter.com/5Rzr3PlcdS
Short the Euro?
Reasons to short the Euro
— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) July 30, 2022
1. The Euro zone is going into recession
2. Italian politics makes a bad situation worse
3. Putin has some tricks up his sleeve for winter
4. NO ONE BELIEVES EURO FALLS BELOW PARITY
5. Speculative FX positioning (black) is flat Euros pic.twitter.com/zkDbaoAO1g
ECB Rate Hikes?
Another way of looking at what is priced in Euro is hikes priced for the ECB (blue) vs the Fed (black). Markets are still pricing an almost 200 bps hiking cycle for the ECB. That is incompatible with markets pricing recession, so it's unlikely that EUR/$ is pricing recession... pic.twitter.com/9ukJDxHqyK
— Robin Brooks (@RobinBrooksIIF) July 31, 2022
The Euro is 57.6 percent of the US dollar index. If the Euro continues to tank, the US dollar will rally.
People still debate a US recession. Europe is unmistakable.
And in case you missed it, Hello EU: A Eurosceptic, Hard Right, Italian Government is Coming in September
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