Photo by Colin Watts on Unsplash 
 

GBP/USD remains trapped in a near-term cycling pattern on Wednesday, continuing to churn aimlessly between 1.3700 and 1.3650. Cable traders are unlikely to pick a meaningful direction until after the Bank of England’s (BoE) latest interest rate decision, due during Thursday’s London market session. However, it is unlikely that the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will deliver anything of note that will actually shift long-term fundamentals.

After a razor-thin 5-4 vote to trim interest rates another 25 bps in December, the MPC is broadly expected to hold interest rates steady on Thursday; rate markets show a scant 4.1% chance of a February interest rate cut from the BoE. 

On the American side, US ADP Employment Change and Initial Jobless Claims are due later on Thursday. However, traders will be looking ahead to the latest Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) figures from January, which were postponed until February 11 thanks to the latest partial US government funding shutdown, which was once again avoided in the eleventh hour.

GBP/USD daily chart
 

Technical Analysis:
 

In the daily chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3652. The 50-day exponential moving average rises to 1.3492 and remains above the 200-day at 1.3340, underscoring a bullish bias. Price holds above the faster average as both slopes point higher, keeping pullbacks contained and favoring further upside.

Stochastic (14,5,5) has retreated from overbought and prints 67.88, indicating momentum has cooled while staying positive. A renewed uptick would keep the advance in gear, while a drop below the 50 line could trigger consolidation toward the rising 50-day EMA at 1.3492.

In the 4-hour chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3652. The 200-period exponential moving average rises to 1.3534 and underpins a bullish bias, with price holding decisively above this trend filter. Dips toward this average would meet initial support, while sustained trade above it keeps upside traction intact.

Momentum cools as the Stochastic (14,5,5) retreats from the 70s to the mid-50s, indicating fading immediate impulse rather than a trend break. A turn higher in the oscillator would re-energize bids and keep the topside in focus. A deeper slide toward the 40 area would point to extended consolidation before trend resumption.

In the 15-minute chart, GBP/USD trades at 1.3652. Price holds below a declining 200-EMA at 1.3689, maintaining an intraday bearish bias. The average continues to slope lower, highlighting persistent supply on rebounds. Stochastic (14,5,5) has eased from a brief push above the 50 line toward the mid-40s, flagging waning recovery momentum. Below the average, sellers keep control and dips remain favored.

The setup stays fragile while the 200-EMA trends lower and caps bounces. A decisive push back above the 50 line on Stochastic would improve momentum, whereas another roll-over from this area would keep pressure on the downside. A close above 1.3689 would be needed to neutralize the immediate bearish tone.

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