• At the start of this week, the GBP/USD currency pair jumped close to the psychological resistance of 1.3000, reaching its highest level in a month.
• This was as signs of economic resilience and moderate inflation led traders to expect fewer interest rate cuts from the Bank of England compared to the US Federal Reserve.
• Traders expect a 44-basis-point interest rate cut from the Bank of England this year, with a 39% chance of a 25-basis-point cut in September.

(Click on image to enlarge)

For the US Federal Reserve, a 25bp cut in September is fully priced in, with a 24.5% chance of a larger 50bp cut and more than 90bp of easing expected by the end of the year. This week, attention turns to the Fed’s Jackson Hole symposium, where US central bank chairman Jerome Powell will speak on Friday, and in the UK, investors await the PMI readings and consumer confidence data from GfK.

On the electronic trading front, UK 10-year gilt yield hovers at a one-week high. By performance, the UK 10-year gilt yield was little changed, at a one-week high of 3.95%, as financial markets await US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium. In the UK, attention is focused on the upcoming PMI readings and GfK consumer confidence data. Economic resilience and moderate inflation have led traders to expect a smaller rate cut from the Bank of England than from the Fed.

Currently, Traders expect a 44bp rate cut from the BoE this year, with a 39% chance of a 25bp cut in September. For the Fed, a 25bp cut in September is fully priced in, with a 24.5% chance of a 50bp cut and more than 90bp of easing expected by the end of the year.

According to reliable trading platforms, the GBP/USD exchange rate has rebounded strongly from its early August losses, but both charts and economic fundamentals are consistent in indicating that further gains may remain possible in the future. Technically, the pound has regained multiple key levels on the charts against the US dollar last week in an extended rebound from its early August lows, including its 200-week moving average at 1.2845, and a 50% Fibonacci retracement of its July decline at 1.2857, and a 61.8% retracement of the same downward trend at 1.2901.

Nonetheless, it may have room to reclaim more lost ground, in part because US producer and consumer price figures last week suggested that more deflation was brewing, and with July retail sales figures and Thursday’s jobless claims data dampening concerns about the risk of a US or global recession.

Technical forecasts for the GBP/USD pair today:

According to the daily chart performance, the GBP/USD exchange rate is shown over daily periods with selected moving averages and black trendlines indicating a narrow symmetrical triangle, which indicates potential areas of technical support. While Fibonacci retracements of the July downward trend highlight potential technical resistances. With the UK's economic story not playing a significant role, if any, in the heavy selling seen in the GBP/USD pair in late July and early August. Moreover, with the international issues that caused it currently receding, there may be room for the pound to rise further in the near term and possibly to the 78.6% retracement level of the July decline at 1.2965 or even higher.

This would highlight the year-to-date high at 1.3047, which is the last defense of the highest level recorded in July 2023 at 1.3145. furthermore, any breakthrough above this level in the near or medium term would indicate a continuation of the longer-term recovery from the September 2022 lows that stalled last summer.

More By This Author: