Forex Today: Hawkish RBNZ In Record Rate Hike

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The RBNZ hiked rates by 0.75% to their highest level since 2008 at 4.25% and increased their forecast of a forthcoming recession and peak rates at 5.50% next year.

  1. As had been widely expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand raised its interest rate by a strong 0.75%, taking its official cash rate to 4.25%, the highest seen since 2008 and the highest rate of any major currency. The RBNZ also increased its forecast of its maximum OCR in the near term to 5.50% in 2023, while also forecasting a year-long recession which will begin in the middle of 2023. The RBNZ has never made a hike of 0.75% before. Overall, this is seen as a bit of a hawkish tilt and seems to have spurred the Kiwi to minor gains against the Australian Dollar in the AUD/NZD currency cross (which has reached its lowest level since March), and against the Japanese Yen in the NZD/JPY cross.
  2. The minutes of the most recent FOMC meeting will be released later today.
  3. There will be releases today of manufacturing and services PMI data from the UK, Germany, and France.
  4. In the Forex market, the New Zealand Dollar is the strongest major currency over the short term, while the Japanese Yen and the Australian Dollar are the weakest.
  5. Daily new global coronavirus cases remained steady last week, maintaining a downward trend that began last July.
  6. It is estimated that 68.4% of the world’s population has received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccination.
  7. Total confirmed new coronavirus cases worldwide stand at over 643.9 million with an average case fatality rate of 1.03%.  
  8. The rate of new coronavirus infections appears to now be significantly increased only in China, Japan, the Solomon Islands, and Venezuela.  

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