Forex And Cryptocurrency Forecast For May 31 - June 4

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First, a review of last week’s events:


If you look at the chart of this pair on D1, it is safe to talk about the uptrend in the last eight weeks. But if you switch to lower timeframes, H4 or H1, it becomes clear that it has been in the "sideways" for the last two weeks, being squeezed in the range 1.2125-1.2265. The last chord of the five-day period sounded in the area of the Pivot Point of this channel as well, at the level of 1.2194, without giving any guidance for the future.

The macro statistics of the past week looks diversified, and therefore hasn't managed to become a driver for the movement of the pair either to the north or to the south. The number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States continues to decline, but the indicator of pending sales in the real estate market is falling. Orders for capital goods (excluding defense and aviation) have risen, while orders for durable goods have fallen. And the annual data on US GDP (Q1) has remained at the same level. So investors don't know what to do.

Last spring, when the Fed flooded the market with cheap money, its policy was perfectly understandable: to pull the economy out of the crisis and support the purchasing power of the population. A year has passed, the recession is over, stock indices are mushrooming, unemployment is declining, inflation is gaining momentum. But the Fed continues to insist that the set targets have not yet been achieved and therefore it is too early to wind down the fiscal stimulus (QE) programs. So what should investors do with their spare money?

Some of these funds have gone to the long-overbought stock market, bringing the S&P 500 back above 4200 and the Dow Jones above 3450. And another part, $485.3 billion, sits idle on central bank accounts at zero interest rates. And it should be noted that due to QE programs, this happens not only in the United States, but also in other countries, including Europe. As a result, a huge amount of both dollars and European and other currencies have settled in hands of not only American, but also foreign investors. And the market plunged into doubts, which is clearly visible on the EUR/USD chart.


The dynamics of GBP/USD is influenced by the same factors as the previous pair. And just like the euro, the British currency paired with the dollar has been in a sideways trend for two weeks, fluctuating within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. However, unlike the European currency, the activity of the bulls on the pound was significantly higher. This was facilitated by expectations of a faster than forecast increase in interest rates by the Bank of England.

One of the managers of the Bank of England, Gertjan Vlieghe, announced on Thursday, May 27 that rates could rise in the first half of 2022. At the same time, the official stipulated that this would happen only if the labor market recovers faster than expected.

Investors' optimism was added by the comment of Prime Minister Boris Johnson that the latest statistics on COVID-19 does not require adjusting plans to lift quarantine restrictions on June 21. After both of these statements, the pair approached the 36-month high again, where, at 1.4188, it completed the trading session.


Only 25% of experts voted for the growth of the dollar in this pair in the past forecast. But in the battle between bulls and bears, they were strongly supported by the growth in the yield of the 10-year US Treasury bonds, which rose from 1.57% to 1.62% on Thursday June 27. Given that the yen is a safe haven currency, such changes always put strong pressure on it, especially when you consider that the yield on 10-year Japanese bonds is only 0.25%.
The yen was also pressured by fears of a delay in Japan's economic recovery. They were caused by media reports that the country's authorities plan to extend the state of emergency in Tokyo and some other regions for three weeks, until June 20. Additional support to the dollar was provided by the US budget proposed by the administration of President Joe Biden in the amount of $6 trillion.

As a result, the USD/JPY pair broke out of the range 108.55-109.75 and, having gone up, reached the height of 110.20, updating the high of the last seven weeks. As for the week's finish, it was slightly lower: at the level of 109.83.

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Alex Johnson 2 weeks ago Contributor's comment

"And just like the euro, the British currency paired with the dollar has been in a sideways trend for two weeks, fluctuating within the range of 1.4075-1.4220. However, unlike the European currency, the activity of the bulls on the pound was significantly higher."

gbp/usd will continue its sideways trend till we see some substantial changes in British exports to the EU.