The EUR/USD will start this week’s trading near the 1.08300 level, which is quite an accomplishment considering the currency pair touched the 0.95350 realms in late September of 2022.  Upwards momentum spiked on Thursday of last week after U.S. data via the Consumer Price Index numbers showed that inflation was weakening.

Pixabay

Having traded in a consolidated fashion to start last week and into early Thursday, the EUR/USD abruptly sparked higher.  The EUR/USD provided speculators with a bullish perception and plenty of positive sentiment early last week. The currency pair maintained value and essentially created fairly durable support around the 1.07150 realms, which maintained the highest levels of its one-month trading range.

The inflation data from the U.S. acted as strong momentum for the EUR/USD because it firmed up the belief in financial institutions the U.S. Federal Reserve would have to dampen their aggressive interest rate policy further. The notion that interest rates may continue to climb, but at only 0.25% increments has been a reason the USD has weakened, as behavioral sentiment seemingly wagers on dovish attitudes from the U.S. central bank developing late in 2023.

U.S Banking Holiday Tomorrow for Martin Luther King Observance

Fast trading action in the EUR/USD going into the weekend did not witness a major reversal lower. The ability of the EUR/USD to sustain price action near the 1.08300 mark is noteworthy and trading on Monday and Tuesday should be monitored closely. Intriguingly, the U.S has a banking holiday tomorrow which means most U.S. financial houses will be closed and this leaves the door open for the potential of rather choppy conditions to start the week.

Traders who remain bullish regarding the EUR/USD will need to use one-year charts to gain a perspective on higher price ratios. The EUR/USD sustained trading from April 2020 until the first couple of weeks in April 2022 above its current price levels, which may cause some speculators to favor additional buying outlooks. However, trading this week may find the 1.09000 mark a step too far away, but speculators who believe it is the next important upwards goal to be achieved cannot be blamed. Being overly ambitious could be dangerous if risk management is not used.

• Support for the EUR/USD in the short term should be watched near the 1.08250 level, if this level is sustained it would be important. However, a move below 1.08000 would not be surprising and may fit the technical narrative for the EUR/USD well.
• Cautious bullish speculators may look at support levels below the 1.07800 mark as potential buying ground for the EUR/USD.

EUR/USD Weekly Outlook:

Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.07200 to 1.09250

Day traders of the EUR/USD should remain conservative regarding risk management.  If a speculator remains optimistic regarding the upward climb of the EUR/USD, they should still acknowledge that a significant reversal lower has not been generated in the currency pair in the short term. Traders should be on the lookout for potentially choppy conditions early this week with the absence of U.S financial institutions until Tuesday, because volumes may be lower than normal.

Support near 1.08000 is important, but a move below this level would not mean the bullish trend in the EUR/USD is over. Day traders need to be ready for the potential of reversals lower which are a part of normal trading action. Selling the EUR/USD however while looking for downturns should be done carefully and with solid risk-taking tactics. Technically the 1.07500 to 1.07400 marks look rather durable for the time being.

Traders looking for higher moves should remain realistic. Aiming for the 1.0900 mark psychologically may be of interest, but it is likely too high a target for traders who are short-term speculators. If the 1.08300 level is maintained and the 1.08500 to 1.08600 are challenged and see legitimate trading remains above these prices, this could signal additional bullish activity can be expected. Having seen a dynamic rush upward late last week may bring about early volatility tomorrow and Tuesday however.

More By This Author:

USD/JPY Forex Signal: Bearish Trend To Persist Ahead Of US CPI Data
GBP/USD Forex Signal: To Retest 1.2000 Ahead Of Powell Statement
Weekly Forex Forecast - Sunday, Jan. 8