EUR/USD Trades With A Negative Bias Below 1.0750, Eyes On German Inflation Data

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  • EUR/USD remains on the defensive around 1.0728 in Friday’s early Asian session. 
  • US PPI figure rose 0.2% MoM in March, compared to the 0.3% estimate; yearly PPI climbed 2.1%, the biggest gain since April 2023. 
  • The ECB held its key interest rates steady at 4.0% for a fifth straight meeting on Thursday, as widely expected. 

The EUR/USD pair trades with a negative bias near 1.0728 on Friday during the early Asian session. The modest recovery in the US Dollar (USD) amid the rising speculation of a Fed rate cut in September weighs on the major pair. On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) held interest rates steady at a record high as expected and opened the door to a rate cut in June. Investors await the German March inflation data and the preliminary US Michigan Consumer Sentiment, due on Friday.

A measure of US inflation at the wholesale level came in softer-than-expected in March, boosting hopes for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose 0.2% MoM in March, compared to the 0.3% estimate. Annually, the PPI jumped 2.1% YoY in the same period, the biggest gain since April 2023. Additionally, the Core PPI, excluding food and energy, increased 2.4% YoY, beating market expectations, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Thursday.

The report had little impact on the market. Investors are now pricing in only two rate cuts this year, which will most likely begin in September, according to CME FedWatch Tool. The FOMC minutes released on Wednesday showed that participants noted their uncertainty about the elevated high inflation and recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2%," according to the minutes.

Across the pond, the ECB held its key interest rates steady at 4.0% for a fifth straight meeting on Thursday. The central bank also hinted about an upcoming rate cut, despite uncertainty over the Fed's next moves. The markets have priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut from the ECB in June, according to LSEG data. The growing speculation that the ECB would cut its rate before the US Fed exerted some selling pressure on the Euro (EUR) and acts as a tailwind for the EUR/USD pair. 


Today last price 1.0728
Today Daily Change -0.0014
Today Daily Change % -0.13
Today daily open 1.0742


Daily SMA20 1.0833
Daily SMA50 1.0829
Daily SMA100 1.0872
Daily SMA200 1.0832


Previous Daily High 1.0867
Previous Daily Low 1.0729
Previous Weekly High 1.0876
Previous Weekly Low 1.0725
Previous Monthly High 1.0981
Previous Monthly Low 1.0768
Daily Fibonacci 38.2% 1.0782
Daily Fibonacci 61.8% 1.0814
Daily Pivot Point S1 1.0692
Daily Pivot Point S2 1.0642
Daily Pivot Point S3 1.0554
Daily Pivot Point R1 1.083
Daily Pivot Point R2 1.0917
Daily Pivot Point R3 1.0967

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