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EUR/USD holds firms above the 1.1700 threshold on Monday as the US Dollar weakens while investors wait for the latest Nonfarm Payrolls report on Tuesday. At the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1739 unchanged.

Euro steadies near multi-week highs as traders await Nonfarm Payrolls and assess mixed Fed rhetoric
 

Greenback continues to edge lower down 0.10% according to the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the buck’s performance against a basket of six currencies, registers the third daily loss in the last four, poised to reach the 98.00 figure if the jobs market continues to deteriorate.

The US docket featured a tranche of Fed officials. Fed Governor Stephen Mira was dovish while Boston Fed President Susan Collins justified her decision at the December meeting, striking neutral comments.

Contrarily, New York Fed President John Williams was modestly hawkish, saying that policy has moved “from modestly restrictive” to neutral.

On Tuesday, market participants would digest the November Nonfarm Payrolls, Retail Sales alongside further comments by Fed speakers.

Across the pond, a Reuters poll revealed that economists project the European Central Bank (ECB) will remain in hold throughout 2026 as they estimate inflation to remain subdued, but the economy is expected to stay resilient.

Ahead of the week, the ECB is expected to keep rates unchanged at the December 18 meeting.

Euro Price This Month
 

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this month. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
 

Daily market movers: EUR/USD unchanged despite Fed hawkish rhetoric
 

• Last week, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for a third time in 2025, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75% in a split decision. Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that policymakers could pause the easing cycle as the economy absorbs the cumulative 75 basis points of rate cuts delivered this year.
• Boston Fed President Susan Collins said she sees inflation risks lower than before, backing the latest rate cut amid a shift in the balance of risks.
• New York Fed President John Williams stressed that restoring inflation to the 2% target remains critical, noting that firms appear reluctant to both hire and fire. Williams expects the unemployment rate to hold near 4.5% by year-end and sees inflation reaching target in 2027. He projects GDP at 2.25% in 2026, above the expected pace for 2025.
• Earlier, Fed Governor Stephen Miran maintained a distinctly dovish stance, arguing that a faster pace of rate cuts would move policy closer to neutral. He reiterated expectations for a faster decline in shelter inflation within the PCE index and downplayed the role of tariffs in driving goods inflation higher.
• US November Nonfarm Payrolls are expected to show job gains of 40K, with the Unemployment Rate steady at 4.4%. October Retail Sales are forecast to rise 0.2% MoM, unchanged from September, while control-group sales—used to calculate GDP—are projected to rebound to 0.3% after a 0.1% contraction previously.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD remains upward bias despite remaining subdued
 

EUR/USD’s technical setup points to a neutral-to-bullish bias, which would be reinforced if the pair manages to close the week above 1.1700. Momentum indicators support this view, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turning higher and signaling strengthening buying interest.

A break above the December 11 high at 1.1762 would clear the way toward 1.1800, followed by the 1.1850 region and, ultimately, the yearly high at 1.1918. Conversely, if the pair tumbles below 1.1700 it would shift the focus to initial support at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 1.1645, ahead of the 1.1600 handle.
 

EUR/USD daily chart

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