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• EUR/USD edges up 0.10% to 1.1417 despite stronger US inflation and jobs data.
• US Core PCE rises to 2.8% YoY; Initial Jobless Claims dip to 218K.
• Fed holds rates in 9–2 vote; Powell pushes back on September cut odds.

The EUR/USD recovered some ground on Thursday, up a modest 0.10% after data from the United States (US) revealed a strong economy, justifying the Federal Reserve’s reluctance to reduce rates, as witnessed on Wednesday. AT the time of writing, the pair trades at 1.1417, virtually unchanged.

Before Wall Street opened, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, exceeded estimates and the previous month's reading, indicating that prices are rising. Other data revealed that the labor market remains resilient, after the number of Americans filing for unemployment claims dipped below estimates.

A day ago, the US central bank held rates unchanged, with two dissenters. Fed Governors Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller supported a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut. At the press conference, the Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that a rate cut in September is not a certainty, while adopting a meeting-by-meeting approach, with no rush to ease policy.

Consequently, the Greenback rose, as depicted by the US Dollar Index (DXY). The DXY, which tracks the performance of six currencies vs. the buck, advanced 0.16% to 100.05.

Across the pond, inflation in the European Union (EU) seems to remain around the European Central Bank (ECB) 2% goal, following the release of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Germany, France, Italy, and Spain.

Traders gear up for Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll figures for July, along with the announcement of the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the final University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment index.

Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD stays firm despite a solid US jobless claim report
 

• Initial Jobless Claims fell to 218,000 for the week ending July 26, beating expectations of 224,000. The data comes ahead of Friday’s July Nonfarm Payrolls report, where economists forecast a gain of 110,000 new jobs.
• The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, Core PCE, increased by 2.8% year-over-year in June, up from 2.7% in May. Meanwhile, headline PCE accelerated to 2.6% from 2.3%, slightly above market expectations of 2.5%.
• The Federal Reserve monetary policy statement highlighted that economic growth moderated in the first half, though the unemployment rate remains low and inflation remains “somewhat elevated.”
• Furthermore, the committee added that its commitment to achieve maximum employment and inflation at a rate of 2% and acknowledged that “Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated.”
• The release of stronger-than-expected Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the second quarter in the US, along with solid ADP Employment Change figures, justified Fed Chair Powell's comments that the economy is not behaving as if monetary policy were restrictive.
• Across the pond, Germany’s inflation dipped from 2% to 1.8%, while figures in Italy eased from 1.8% to 1.7%. Prices in France were unchanged at 0.9% above estimates of 0.8% and Spanish inflation rose from 2.3% to 2.7%.
• Regarding the ECB’s monetary policy, Deutsche Bank does not expect further cuts and hints that the next move would be a hike by the end of 2026.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD shifts neutral after stalling at around 1.1400
 

The EUR/USD stopped its drop at around 1.1401 with buyers emerging at that level, as the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) at 1.1361 was under threat of being broken, if bears cracked to the 1.1400 mark. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows that sellers are in charge but are taking a respite after diving to 34.60; the RSI rose to 34.70. However, further downside on the pair is seen.

If EUR/USD tumbles below 1.1400, the next test would be the 100-day SMA and 1.1300. Conversely, if the pair climbs above 1.1500, the 50-day SMA would be up for grabs at 1.1572.
 

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