EUR/USD Looks Higher On Monday But Technical Ceiling Remains

By Joshua Gibson of FX Street

Monday, July 1, 2024 7:45 PM EDT

Bank Note, Euro, Bills, Paper Money

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EUR/USD briefly tested above 1.0770 on Monday before settling back.
A packed economic data docket awaits the Fiber this week.
EU HICP inflation, US NFP data looms ahead.

EUR/USD clipped into a fresh multi-week high above 1.0770 on Monday before getting forced back down by a broad-market reversal in investor sentiment. Bullish momentum was cut short after US activity figures flashed warning signs of a steepening economic downturn. Investors will be buckling down for the wait to key economic figures on both sides of the Atlantic throughout the week, culminating in a fresh print of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) slated for Friday.

German Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures broadly missed the mark early Monday, with annualized German CPI easing to 2.2% in June, falling from the previous 2.4% and backsliding through the forecast 2.3%. US data also missed expectations on Monday; US ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) figures declined in June, falling to 48.5 from 48.7 and entirely missing the forecast increase to 49.1. US ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid also declined sharply in June, falling to 52.1 from the previous 57.0, falling even further beyond the forecast decline to 55.9.

US markets were abruptly jolted into fresh risk concerns over the upcoming November presidential election. A recent public debate left the waters murky on who the clear frontrunner would be, and the US Supreme Court released a ruling on Monday stating that courts have limited capacity to levy criminal charges against sitting Presidents.

A fresh batch of key European data will drop on markets on Tuesday, with a slate of speeches from European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers including another appearance from ECB President Christine Lagarde. Pan-European Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) inflation is expected to tick down slightly, with Core EU HICP inflation forecast to tick down to 2.8% YoY from the previous 2.9%. European Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation data is due Wednesday, followed by EU-wide Retail Sales figures early Friday.

On the US side, investors will be looking ahead to Tuesday’s appearance from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell, followed by ADP Employment Change figures on Wednesday and Friday’s latest iteration of US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) and Average Hourly Earnings for June.

EURO PRICE THIS WEEK

The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week. Euro was the strongest against the New Zealand Dollar.

EUR/USD technical outlook

The Fiber kicked off the new trading week with a fresh push into 12-day peaks above 1.0770 before crumpling risk appetite dragged the pair back down to 1.0735. Intraday price action continues to lean into the midrange as EUR/USD grapples with the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0722.

EUR/USD found technical support from a demand zone priced in below 1.0680, but bullish momentum remains limited as technical indicators weigh bids down. Daily candlesticks remain pinned below the 200-day EMA at 1.0786, and Fiber remains trapped on the low end of a recent decline from June’s early bids above 1.0900.