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EUR/USD registers modest gains on Tuesday, yet it remains trading within familiar levels amid the lack of catalysts as the US government remains shut. However, upbeat news regarding the US-China trade war, weakened the Dollar and boosted the Euro. The pair trades at 1.1654, up 0.09%.

Euro gains 0.09% amid US shutdown and cautious Fed outlook ahead of rate decision
 

The US and China agreement on a trade framework weighed on the US Dollar, which is usually sought as a safe-haven asset. Also, data showed that US households are growing less optimistic about the economy as shown by the Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence data for October.

Aside from this, traders’ attention turned to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy decision on Wednesday. The Fed is expected to reduce borrowing costs, even though the central bank is data-dependent, but the government shutdown, keeps the markets and the Federal Reserve, leaning on past data.

In Europe, the European Central Bank (ECB) Consumer Expectation Survey revealed that one-year inflation expectations slip from 2.8% to 2.7%, while the three year, remained steady at 2.5%.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to hold rates unchanged at 2% on Thursday, which could lend further support to the shared currency.

Daily market movers: EUR/USD advance capped by France political turmoil
 

• The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the buck versus six currencies, edges down 0.11%, down at 98.68.
• The Consumer Confidence revealed by the CB witness the index falling to 94.6 in Octoberm from a revised 95.6 in September, the second consecutive monthly decline. The survey showed that households are worried about the availability of jobs over the next six months and persistently higher prices because of tariffs on imports.
• The survey also found that inflation expectations for the year ahead increased by 5.9%.
• Traders are also focused on the prospect of trade deal between the United States and China ahead of a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea on Thursday.
• The debate in France regarding the budget is ongoing, with focus on a potential wealth tax. France’s Socialist Party warned it is prepared to bring down the government by the end of the week unless next year’s budget includes a substantial tax increase on the wealthy.

Technical outlook: EUR/USD subdued, upside capped by key moving averages
 

EUR/USD remains downward pressured, with the technical outlook suggesting limited upside potential unless key resistance levels are cleared. The pair faces immediate resistance at the 100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of 1.1664, followed by the 50-day SMA at 1.1686. A break above the latter would expose the 1.1700 threshold.

On the downside, support is seen at 1.1600, followed by 1.1550 and 1.1500. A decisive move below this zone would open the way toward the August 1 cycle low near 1.1391.
 

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