Eurozone Commentary - Tuesday, Nov. 28

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Euro Holds Near Highs

EURUSD is hovering around 3-month highs today as USD weakness keeps the pair underpinned for now. Yesterday, a slew of ECB commentary helped further support the single currency with various ECB members highlighting residual hawkish risks within the bank’s outlook. ECB’s Nagel warned that the bank might yet have to tighten further if the inflation outlook worsens and warned against any premature easing of policy. Lagarde was then heard following up on these sentiments, warning that while inflation was seen to be falling, robust wage growth still posed a threat to the deflationary trend. Consequently, Lagarde outlined the risk of a temporary uptick in inflation over the coming months.

Inflation in Focus

Looking ahead this week, the main focus for EUR traders will be on the latest eurozone CPI data due on Thursday. Headline and core are forecast to fall to 2.7% and 3.9% respectively, from 2.9% and 4.2%. Any undershooting of these targets should help cool EUR in the short term, keeping ECB tightening expectations muted. However, if we see CPI coming in above target this might well drive a near-term repricing of ECB rate expectations, driving EUR higher. If USD continues lower through the week on any US data undershoots, this might well set EURUSD up for the next leg higher.

Technical Views


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The rally in EURUSD has stalled for now into the 1.0937 level resistance. Following an initial reaction lower we’re now testing the level again with a break higher here seen opening the way for a move up to 1.1126 longer run. Worth noting bearish divergence here on momentum studies, however, with any failure here likely to see a rotation back down to 1.0785. 

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